A random f+3 can lead to +9 when you are block crouching. And if you are blocking standing, how do you know whether the Cage player will do f+3 or f+3,3? You cannot react to all of these poke variations. If you try to poke out, you are risking f+3,3 which can be hit-confirmed into the nutpunch. So your little poke does 1% of damage while f+3,3 xx nutpunch leads to 20% of damage and more pressure. How is that not an overwhelming risk/reward ratio in favor of Cage?
Some of you have to fight Curbo, Dizzy, Maxter, etc. to experience this BS first hand.