The problem here is how you are explaining the setup
ApocaLips
What you are TRYING to say is that your first assumption is that the defender is so mind fucked that he will merge both 50/50 responses into one giant mess and blur the lines between each of the two 50/50 scenarios and be forced into guessing correctly out of three possible escapes. You want us to believe that regardless of what jump you do (j1 or j2) your opponent will respond by back dashing, high or low blocking.
The reality here is and I'm going to quote you "So they have to guess beforehand" means they will have already chosen whether they will respond to the j1 50/50 or the j2 50/50. Thus, they need only respond to the 50/50 to which they have already made a read on beforehand.
The reason I clarified earlier in this thread what happens if you do block high against a j1 or back dash against a j2 was to better understand the setup. No person having "guessed beforehand" that they will be hit by a j1 will block high because, as forum posters replied to me, "you will get full combo". So there is only two escape options after their read, not three.
I think this setup is mind fucking YOU, not me.
However, I do invite you to fully explain in a coherent manner how the setup is a 33/33/33 and how you obtain the point of view where the success rate is 67% from the aggressors perspective and 33% failure rate from the defenders point of view. I want to know your thought process and compare it to my own so I can further understand the setup both from my understand and yours.