I feel like Avalanche could be better than Thin Ice.
Pretty much the main reason why you would pick Thin Ice over Dead of Winter is because it had Slide. Both Frigid Storm and Death-Cicle Barrage are not super useful moves. That's not to say that they don't have uses -- they do -- it's just that they aren't anything special and they actually remove Sub-Zero's ability to combo from his F2 Overhead like he can in DoW.
Now with Avalanche being a thing, you can have Slide and still have something to cancel into from F2 Overhead by using Creeping Ice. It's not going to lead to a full combo like DoW, but on-hit you can get a stagger and on-block you can hit-confirm into Amplified Creeping Ice pretty easily and it seems to keep you safe for the most part. Arctic Trap feels like a really bad version of Bo' Rai Cho's Crop Duster from MKX because it doesn't have nearly as much potential for set-ups and most characters seem to be able to get out of it easily. Still, it might be useful in certain match-ups just to create an obstacle between you and your opponent.
In my opinion it's kind of a middle ground between DoW and TI:
Dead of Winter = More damage and F2 cancels.
Thin Ice = Slide and more projectiles.
Avalanche = Slide and F2 cancels.
The F2 cancels from DoW and Slide from TI are the most important moves from each of those variations, in my opinion. And honestly, I feel like I would rather have Slide + F2 cancels than Slide + more projectiles. To be fair, I haven't played enough to really know for sure and it's still really early so who knows what tech could be found for this variation -- for it or against it.
Still, I think there's a decent chance it will be better or just as good as Thin Ice.
