I was doing like a 3 hour set in Single Fight mode against Hawkgirl set on very hard(I know its the AI and whatnot), but from the many Hawkgirl players I faced, they play very similarly and this one had the benefit that it was an AI to react instantly and would optimize many of her combos. Anyways, at first I thought the match was 4-6 Hawkgirl's favor, then 5-5, and now I strongly believe its 6-4 Harley's favor. My Harley can definitely hold her own(she was a joke before haha, no oki set ups, mix ups, or anything), so it took me by surprise how well she in general can deal with HG.
Imo, Hawkgirl is for sure a top 10 contender(as is Harley), I personally think maybe even top 5 and only a handful or the cast can deal with her accordingly, Harley being one of them. The way the MU was going, it was pretty clear Harley could nullify all of her options and was able to play a much better keep away game then she could. I read your insight after the set, and most of it is very spot on. I wanted to add in general terms that Harley is one of the characters in the game that doesn't require meter for pretty much anything other than zoning benefits and combo enders. This obviously includes meter for super, wager and MB b3/f3. HG is going to try to lame you out and stay in her hideaway spot where MB cupcakes won't reach her, but what goes up must come down. If she tries chucking maces at you, her diagonal ones you can IAoopsy daisy over them and gain the same amount of meter she is gaining from throwing maces. If on point, you can even throw out Line of Fire in between and be able to jump up before getting hit to do the oopsy daisy gaining you twice as much meter. IAOD can also be done if you're up against the edge of the stage and she's trying to bully you. You will still recover faster after your IAOD than she will from her mace tosses. As you said, position yourself at the right distance for MB cupcakes. Whether they use up their flight time, or drop before the end of it, MBcupcakes on reaction will catch them because they would now have to fly all the way back up to their hiding spot which they will not reach in time if they don't respect it. These on block also pretty much grant you an additional cupcake that's safe all while doing very nice chip.
From a distance, HG shouldn't be able to chip you unless she's mace charging and MB her specials but thats what you want to get her to do. You want to have meter on your side while draining her so she's forced to resort to chucking maces again to gain some meter back and you can rinse and repeat until she gains some courage and takes the fight to you. It's a bit of a process(half the time it came down to me winning by time outs) but its very effective and all the chip you're doing even when MB specials, give you meter right back and giving you the life lead. Once she starts taking the fight to you, it pretty much becomes in Harley's favor because she has a much stronger mix up and block string game. 112 comes in very handy here and though HG can mace charge or wing evade after to avoid CERTAIN follow ups, if you condition her to respect your follow ups, such as d1~TS or another 112, you will then be able to use your other strings just as you would against the other characters that don't have a "Get out of jail free" card. Though HG has massive reach with her d1, d2, d3 and can throw out her WE2, WE3, and mace charge, she has to be very close and is also unsafe after to attempt a follow up. d1 on block lets you check her back with d1 or a NJ2 or IAOD. d2 gives you a jump in and d3 as well you can follow up the same ways unless its at max distance, which even then, you can get a jump in or IAOD. We2 is the only special that leaves HG at an advantage, so just be wary of that, plus its an overhead, but as the OP said, you have to be very close for it to hit. We3 and MC, though fast and advancing, will give Harley enough time to jump back to do an IAOD after. MC will push HG back some, enough for you to back dash as well and control the space, or get a jump in. And We3 gives Harley a guaranteed d1. HG has no overhead starters other than We2, divekick(from the air though)and f3, so you should be crouching if she's up close. Her d3 looks identical to her d1 but is a low and will cause a knockdown. As the OP said, just be wary of her 22 string, in which the second hit is an overhead. Learn to differentiate between her 2 and b2, as the look very similar(as do many of her moves unfortunately); b22b3, is a mid, low, low string; 22, is a mid, overhead; b23, is a mid, overhead string.
Aside from all that, it really came down to the combos that turned it around for me many times. Because of HG's safe wake up game, I wouldn't recommend any set ups after combos for mix ups and all those shenanigans; aside from enders that allow for MB cupcakes to check them on wake up. You just want the life lead and then lame Hawkgirl out to return the favor. What worked for me big time was doing her optimum combos that ended in her Play Doctor which I would MB after. Leaves her standing so there's no wake up game, and while you move away or attempt to pressure her, she's still eating an additional 8% that's unblockable. This really worked wonders at just about any point because if they had little meter or a lot, if you decide to play keep away, HG will MB her specials to try to get in or to do some damage all while wasting meter or attempting to gain some. Harley does have the tools to evade them all while HG is eating that extra damage and then you get to start chipping them again until you get to land another combo. And lastly if your meter management is done right, during the second life bar, HG should now contemplate whether wagering or not. Almost every single time in all those matches, HG didn't wager because I had the meter advantage or was at least even which still didn't give her a chance to gain anything. Harley gains so much meter in this MU, more than average, use it well. You shouldn't be sitting on 4 bars but at the same time you shouldn't be empty.
Thanks to the recent buff, trait does come in handy very much here. Just know your safe set ups where no matter the trait selection, no harm will fall on to you, and use it there.
Sorry for the length and I hope this helps your Hawkgirl MU
