Just right now Shao is basically in the "he's 1 patch away from being good" kinda zone. As it stands currently he won't be able to excel. Sure he can do fine but for a lot of people "fine" ain't good enough.
Both variations basically have a dead move in the buff/debuffs cause there's no possible way to get them right now(unless you know something and please enlighten me) on anyone with a functioning brain, even if you try to sacrifice combo damage and end a combo early canceling into a buff you are still like -25 right by the enemy.
Up hammer could be a lot better if they minimized the gap so you couldn't uppercut/perfect block it. Like enough for them to try to hit a button but not enough for them to do much. I thought this was his best move until I explored it further(due to the perceived pressure power I thought it had) but now I know it will get you killed for trying to use it.
If shao could even do like Old Kotal, do move whiff into air grab, then either be less negative, or plus on a few things that would be a big help.
So yeah Shao alright, but nothing special right now.