The following are Raiden's weaknesses as far as I know.
I'm aware of all of these, but I'll give my outlook on all of this.
- Bad distance game. Raiden's fireball is pretty mediocre. Any character with a teleport can punish Raiden fairly easily. The regular and enhanced fireball can both be crouched. No one should be blocking them. You don't want to allow Raiden to build any meter.
Raiden doesn't need a distance game, so the lack of one doesn't really effect him. That said, Raiden's EX Lightning is really good, ducked or blocked.
- Bad anti-aerial game. Raiden's AA game is anything but spectacular. His d+2 is slow. I think he struggles with cross up jumping punches and kicks in particular. He has to burn some meter to escape safely. If he uses the teleport, anticipate it and be ready to apply some kind of mix up if you cannot punish in time.
I think this is Raiden's biggest weakness, and the one I try to exploit the most when I face a decent Raiden. His d+3 can mess with cross-up jump timing, but that's the same problem you'd face with most characters.
- Risk vs. reward ratio is in your favor when he is grounded. Teleport has no invincibility frames when it is used as a wake up attack. Only the Electric Fly does. You may also see enhanced d,f+2 because of armor, but it hits high. The point is that the risk vs. reward ratio is in your favor to apply some pressure. Electric Fly does 10% of damage, but should you block it, make Raiden pay with your biggest combo.
On paper, I agree with this. However, in practice I do not. If Raiden goes with a wake-up Superman, you're taking 10% damage, possibly getting cornered, and Raiden gets wake-up pressure. If you block it, most characters are only taking 30% damage from him and only if Raiden doesn't have breaker. I think that's actually a pretty even risk/reward.
You also have to include the fact that while teleport is not invincible, you still need to hit it meaty and generally with a special-mid or low (a throw will work if you have good timing). Under these circumstances, Raiden has plenty of time to tech roll, see if you're attempting an attack and Superman right through it.
From my experience, most decent Raiden players won't Superman on wake-up unless they have reason to believe it will hit. Rarely do I see a blocked wake-up Superman when a good Raiden is playing.
- b+3,1,2 and 3,3,4. You can interrupt each hit of b+3,1,2 with moderately fast moves that have armor. You can also interrupt the last hit of 3,3,4 with moderately fast moves that have armor.
You can interrupt both strings with a 6-frame attack. You can probably interrupt with a 7-frame attack as well, but I've only tested a 6-frame. No armor is necessary to do this.
- Know your anti-teleport strategies. If you are playing character X, you should know exactly what character X can do to counter the teleport. Even if character X has difficulties punishing the teleport, think about generic alternatives like d+3 and jumping forward, which crosses up Raiden.
It's funny because when I was testing Raiden's teleport punishment, I was landing it about 50% of the time. In tournament play, I hit it maybe 10% of the time, even when trying a basic d+1 punishment. It's just very difficult to punish, especially with significant damage.
With that said, Old Kano used to be Raiden's toughest match up in my opinion. The fast and safe Up Ball made Raiden's life very hard. Now days I would think that Kung Lao is his most difficult match up. I am no Sub Zero expert but I would actually try and stay in the corner with Sub Zero. If you do a corner Ice Clone and Raiden teleports, he freezes automatically.
I'd agree with Kung Lao being a good match for Raiden, but that's probably still 5-5 at best. Sub-Zero seems like a 5-5 as well, but Raiden has ways around the Ice Clone.
While I agree that Sub-Zero may have a 5-5 with Raiden, this is not a good example IMO. This match looked like a Raiden who did know the Sub-Zero match-up very well. Lots of missed punishment and he was hit by Ice Clones he could've easily avoided. Not to mention he hardly punished Sub for using the Ice Clone.
Could not have said it better myself. I actually mained Subz before I discovered all of Noob's tricks and due to the demo. The culprit in all of this is teleport. Put an ice clone behind you, walk forward and presto, no more random teleporting! Now your just dealing with Superman and slow strings. I find Raiden vs. Subz partially in Subz favor. If an ice clone is behind me, I can play super lame with iceball spam, twitch slides, strings, or block in anticipation of superman. Raidens not helpless in this match up by far, but when ice clone is out, Subz is in control. 5-5? Maybe. I could even argue to say 6-4 for Chinese Ninja Warrior over Thunder Queer. Fight broken with broken. :-P
Counter picking is showing its ugly head more and more in this game as we break it down.
What about Raiden's various counters to Ice Clone? I don't believe it's as cut and dry as you make it seem.
