Updating
* = Would like to discuss/being asked for insight on match and character.
5-5 vs Johnny Cage * (does his various options closeup and in the air make him the better mix up/rush down character?)
4-6 vs Kabal *
5-5 vs Kano *
6-4 vs Kitana * (Does beating her wake ups with d4 make her prone to pressure?)
5-5 vs Kung Lao* (Do we all agree?)
3-7 vs Noob Saibot * (2-8...nuff said)
5-5 vs Reptile * (I just don't know anymore...Any tourny players experienced with this match up? or anyone?)
6-4 vs Sektor * (WHY?)
6-4 vs Stryker * (Is this still in LK's favor?)
6-4 vs Sub-Zero * (I'm thinking 5-5)
Johnny Cage is absolutely better at rushdown than Liu Kang. He's one of those characters you have to beat with your zoning. His options to get in are not great, but Liu Kang's options to get him out after he gets in are also not great. This matchup feels very even to me, 5-5 seems right.
Kabal is at least 4-6. Might even be worse than that, not sure, but it does feel like he's got the advantage from every range. You can't really zone him because saw wins trades with your fireballs, and it's tough for Liu Kang to interrupt the nomad dash cancel loop.
Kano vs Liu Kang feels even from long range. Seems like both characters have an option for anything the other does. Low fireball beats knives, but straight ball beats low fireball, but high fireball beats straight ball, but knives beats high fireball. I don't know where instant air fireball gets into all of this, it might trade with knives but I'm not sure. Up close Liu Kang has the faster normals, kinda tough for Kano to get his rushdown started. I feel like this is 6-4.
I agree with Kitana vs Liu Kang being 6-4. Neither character really has a definitive advantage in the zoning game, and Liu Kang's rushdown is better.
We've discussed Kung Lao at length, it's very even. If he gets in he probably wins, if he doesn't he probably loses. If you instant air fireball him as he's teleporting, you can juggle him with two more instant air fireballs for a 17% combo. That's my favorite combo in the game, incidentally.
Noob Saibot sucks and has always sucked, the better d1 and armor on upknee definitely does not make it better. I'd like to play against the new Noob before I say it's 2-8, though.
I don't have a huge amount of experience against Reptile; there's a couple guys locally who play Reptile, but they aren't really tournament regulars. The last Reptile I played was Chris G at Summer Jam, who pretty much steamrolled me, but then he's Chris G. Anyways I don't feel like it's a great matchup. You may be able to rush him down if you can get in, but it's really tricky to get in especially since EX flying kick doesn't beat force ball (Reptile's hitbox lowers when he throws the force ball, so the EX flying kick just sails over his head).
Sektor seems 5-5 to me. He outzones Liu Kang, but doesn't have great tools to interrupt Liu Kang's rushdown. Pretty much limited to low poke or uppercut, and d3 should beat either of those. That said I haven't played a whole lot of Sektors so it's entirely possible I don't know what I'm talking about.
I'd really like to get a feel for the new Stryker before changing the matchup numbers there. NRS changed a whole lot of stuff. There is a Stryker player who lives one state over from me, haven't really played him in a while though; there is a tournament coming up near where he lives so who knows, maybe he'll show up for that and I can get some sets in against him.
I am not super afraid of the new Sub Zero. The armor on EX slide does mean you can't always low fireball him out of it, but what, he hits you, you hit him, he knocks you down but knocks you too far away to really get any knockdown pressure going. This is all just theory fighting obviously, but on paper it doesn't seem like it gives him a huge edge. He also took a big damage hit by having his resets removed. Still feels like a matchup that favors Liu Kang.
