countrypistol
Kombatant
Right, I've had a mess around with it again.Looks like EX spin is -19 on block (according to the APP data) so you should be able to like throw a tea party, run out of tea, go get more tea, finish the party, and then punish with whatever you want. Regular spin is -25. I would probably just do 112xxBall or B13xxBall like you said. Even though he's commando I really don't mind the distance. You can just chuck some more knives for meter gain or try to bait out his teleport if he doesn't close distance. Or just run forward and cancel into parry on reaction if they press buttons or just Run up D4 after putting them at a distance since the D4 max range is pretty great.
F4 (11 startup) should punish EX Hat I believe, which I would just cancel into ball, or if you want to burn the meter you can cancel into EX ball and do your ex ball cancel combo from there.
2-ex ball cancel-run cancel-112-choke does 25%. EX choke makes it 30% (I know, I know, 30% for two meters is a waste, I'm just reporting my findings).
You can replace 2 with b1-3 and it does the same damage, f4 gets 1% less.
You can replace the run cancel with a small step forward.
For the sake of comparison, f4-ball is 15%, so you are getting 10% extra damage for one bar of meter. I'm on the fence as to whether it's worth it.