crosstalk
Nice write-up of what options Cage has. Theres a few things that I think are kind of misleading though, that add to why it is such a nightmare matchup:
JIP 11f1 is nearly unusable if Kenshi has at least 1 bar of meter. On block, it gives Kenshi a free EX SC that can only be avoided by throwing out a random EX Nut Punch. It cannot be avoided by jump.
Pressuring Kenshi is nearly impossible regardless of meter. If he has meter, it just gives him an easier time as he doesn't have to worry about doing D1 SC. When he has meter he can do a very simple, foolproof strategy. This is when having blocked a neutral string, do regular SC. This will beat everything (including cross overs) that Cage does except d1 or d3. SC wins the trade with Cages standing 1 regardless of player side (it being a projectile). Now all you have to do is see if you have been hit by a D1 or D3 and immediately EX SC. After being hit by a D1 or D3, Kenshi gets a guaranteed EX SC that is not avoidable by crossover. Again, the only answer to this is throwing out a random EX nut punch.
That is why it is either 8-2 or 9-1. There is so many guaranteed escapes by Kenshi that the only answer to is spending a bar, throwing out a 35% punishable move that just puts you in the same situation. Even when he doesnt have meter, D1 SC is probably the best and easiest meterless escape in the game, and also prevents cross overs.