Rather than throwing numbers around, I figured we could start doing analysis of Cage's bad MUs (and maybe even all MUs eventually) and talk about each one in detail. I thought I could start off with a rough analysis of the Kenshi MU:
Definitely one of Cage's worst matchups. It's going to take a lot of good reads and outplaying to be sucessful in this matchup. Kenshi can make it difficult for Cage from every point on the screen; however, he dominates most at mid and full screen. Within sweep range is when Cage can become a threat with a jump-in, EX Nut Punch, shadow kick, a blocked special from Kenshi, or a whiffed attack from Kenshi. The biggest threat to Cage up close is Kenshi's great armor (from EX Rising Karma and EX Spirit Charge) and excellent pokes (d1 and d3). He can build meter very well with blocked and whiffed specials. Kenshi can use d1 xx Spirit Charge as a great meterless escape from pressure and to keep the opponent in check. Cage wants to stay as close to Kenshi as possible, especially when Kenshi does not have meter. Kenshi is especially vulnerable in the corner without meter - if Cage can get Kenshi to the corner without meter, Kenshi can have a difficult time escaping.
Getting In
Starting off the round with an EX Shadow Kick is a good idea, although Kenshi's EX SC can stop it in its tracks. EX Shadow Kick's armor will go through just abot everything else. Approaching Kenshi depends on how the Kenshi player likes to keep Cage out - most Kenshis will use a combination of SC, teleflurries, and telekentic slashes. The Kenshi player may also utilize Kenshi's normals, F3 and B2, at mid range due to their tremendous reach. For the most part you want to take advantage of Cage's fast forward dash and slowly work your way into sweep range. Once Cage is in sweep range, he becomes a threat to Kenshi, and from here it's up to Cage to make a guess in order to get in on Kenshi or punish him for making a mistake. Making a correct read on what Kenshi will do for zoning will get you in faster.
Kenshi's SC is one of the biggest obstacles when trying to get in. It must be blocked, armored through, or jumped over. All slashes must be blocked high or dashed past. Teleflurries must be ducked under, jumped over, or blocked. The same applies for the EX versions of these moves. As for normals, F3 must be blocked low and B2 must be blocked high. B2's hitbox is very large, so it's not recommended that you try to jump over it. As for other moves, it is recommend that you block SC and only jump over a SC when at sweep distance in order to land a jump in punch. Using an EX Shadow Kick to get past SC is only recommended if Kenshi is near the corner. After landing a JIP, Cage's standard BnB is recommended (JIP F4 2 2 2 44 xx Nut Punch). Blocking a slash is recommended as it's the safest option - if you are within Shadow Kick Range, you can also punish a slash as it's coming out. For teleflurries, D3 under them and dash forward to get in faster (I believe Cage can also just crouch block under teleflurries). If Kenshi uses F32 is B2 and either is active, EX Nut Punch is recommended; otherwise use Cage's standard F33 xx Nut Punch or B3 2 2 2 44 xx Nut Punch to whiff punish them (this has to be spaced out accordingly to whiff punish them). Kenshi's F22B2 and F22B1 strings may also be used, and both are very whiff punishable. I like to walk back and whiff punish with B3, similar to whiff punishing Kitana's F21 string. Anytime these strings are active, they are also susceptible to EX Nut Punch. EX Nut Punch is also a good option in sweep distance to get past a close SC, RK, or teleflurry. It is also possible to use Cage's Forceball to punish a whiffed SC or slash from full screen, although this can be risky due to Kenshi's Reflect. If you ever block a RK up close, dash in f3 or b3 immediately to punish, as it is -17 on block. It's also very whiff punishable.
If you make a bad read on a jump-in when you're in sweep distance, you'll most likely get Rising Karma from the Kenshi player if they see the jump coming into a full combo punish, a standing 2 into a full combo punish, or Spirit Charged back to full screen. The Kenshi player will most likely end their combo with a SC to send you back to full screen, starting the whole process of trying to get in again. It should be noticed that RK can also be jumped over and punished with a JIP, but the space to jump over it is pretty tight. Many Kenshi players like to do a SC after some of his strings or normals, as a blocked SC is hard to punish with Cage - most of the time, this is after F22B2 or B2. Kenshi is neutral after F22B2 and B2 so keep this in mind. After blocking a SC at this distance, it is recommended you F3 immediately after in order to begin Cage's pressure. On a JIP that I'm unsure will hit I like to always go for 11f1 - if the 11 hits, hit confirm into Nut Punch. If it doesn't hit, continue with the 11f1. Kenshi can armor through a JIP 11f1 so only jail him with it when he has no meter; otherwise, f33 xx EX Forceball is recommended provided you have meter.
Applying Pressure
Kenshi has great options to get out of Cage's pressure. Most of the time, these options will send you back full screen so Cage is forced to try and get in again. Kenshi's best escape option with meter is EX SC, which will send you back full screen, or EX RK, which leads to a combo that can also send you back full screen. EX Slashes or Teleflurries are really never used. His best meterless escape options are d1, d3, and SC. Remember that SC is 8 frames so it can beat out F3, 2, and 1. Since SC is a projectile, it will always win if Cage's 2 or 1 are active at the same time. Kenshi's d1 and d3 are 6f and 7f, respectively. The Kenshi player may also SC after d1 or d3, which can stop counterpoke or crossover attempts. If you think he'll go for a SC after a blocked poke, EX Nutpunch is the best option to stop it. Remember that Kenshi is +7 after a blocked EX SC, so expect a follow-up SC or string such as F2 or F3. It's best to block the EX SC and wait for the follow-up, then react accordingly.
Cage must always respect these options. EX SC and RK are vulnerable to crossup JIPs, however. Crossup attempts can be beaten by a dash SC, d1, or EX SC/RK itself so you can't be too predictable with crossups. Cage is able to use 21 and 11f1 on a crouch blocking Kenshi, except the second hit in 11f1 will whiff so it can be punished. He can do his usual pressure with F3, 21, and 11f1, but should be careful when Kenshi has meter. D1 xx SC must also be respected. When Kenshi is in the corner, you should watch out if you try to cross him over - if he does an EX SC, he can follow it up with a d1 into a combo. Cage must be +4 to cross over Kenshi after using a block string, so you can only safely cross over Kenshi during pressure after using EX Forceball. Crossing over Kenshi is only recommended if the Kenshi player immediately uses an EX SC or EX RK, or after using an EX Forceball. If you cross over too late, Kenshi can easily react and punish. Kenshi can also use d3 to lower his hitbox on a crossover, causing your attack to whiff. It should also be noted that Teleflurry is +6 on hit, allowing Kenshi to check you with a SC, so don't try to dash or anything after getting hit by a Teleflurry.
