I know I'm going to get a lot of flack for this.
Number 1: I somewhat agree with several posters, "A variations tier list would be better"
Number 2: I disagree with a lot of "the rest" section, but I think everyone does and everyone is entitled to their opinion. BTW KJ is still top 5
Number 3: This is the one that will rattle some people. I think moving forward for a better, smarter, more competitive game and experience, the top 10 need to be nerfed instead of the rest getting buffed. I think this will make the game closer to the skill level and respectability of Street Fighter. I'm not saying it will get there, but much closer.[/b]
that "respectability" of SF4 has plenty of downsides of its own...why do you think the game is stalling out now? it's had a great run but still not as long as super turbo or marvel 2 (heck, it might only match CvS2). and i think a lot of that is because the game has achieved balance through constant nerfing and widespread mediocrity - meaning the characters just aren't fun to play for a lot of people.
a lot of us play competitive games because we want to do cool powerful shit that still takes thought to use correctly, and SF4 is completely lacking in the former. i highly doubt it would reach guilty gear numbers without the street fighter name & hype behind it.
but don't just take my word for it...since you're cheerleading the japanese so hard here, i'll let you in on a little secret:
daigo doesn't even like SF4. his best friend nuki talked about this in an interview some years back, no bullshit. basically before SF4, daigo had backed off from FGs and gotten addicted to pachinko, then when SF4 came out he obviously gave it a shot. he straight up said "I'm almost embarrassed to play it" because of how easy & accessible it was compared to past SFs, and he specifically mentioned that he felt the characters were too weak & bland (and this was VANILLA, mind you!). so how did we get here, then?
at the start, it's simple: he got really into grinding battle points in the arcade! that basically replaced pachinko for him. then capcom noticed he was #1 ranked in japan, they flew him out to the gamestop tournament, and he got sponsored. daigo takes sponsorship more seriously than anyone in this scene - he's been on the record as saying that a sponsored player should *never* lose to a non-sponsored player. so he's continued on with SF4 out of a sense of professional obligation more than love of the game.
he's not the only well-known player with a story like this, either. i've hung around plenty of top players who bitch about SF4 when the cameras are off, and talk about playing certain games because "i have to"...the grass ain't always greener and all that. the game has tons of other problems i could discuss here, but i've already rambled on too much.
more general point: i think the people who still believe japanese games are more "hardcore" have missed changes in the entire industry. they're not much different from the rest anymore, and those who played capcom games before SF4 know this all too well. i'd compare it to people who think there's a big difference between "FGC" and "esports" events; that was extremely true before SF4, but within a couple years of the modern era i'd say MLG offered a very similar experience to your fighting-game majors at hotels with sponsor booths.
Also variations should be switched as used for different match ups. Currently some characters have completely worthless variations or 1 variation that is so much better than the rest, so it is pointless to use the others. It would be amazing to see people switching variations like SFIV ultras, depending on the mathc
i think this will naturally develop to some extent as the game evolves and the balance patches hit. there's a natural tendency to play the simplest or most MK9-like (see sonya) variations early on. there is one major concern for me though: characters where only one variation can run cancel specials. run cancel seems like a ridiculously huge advantage in this game since there are so few other safe hit confirms out there, but you can't nerf it too hard because good pressure with it is one of the most exciting things to watch. personally i'd like to see the cancel window slightly extended in general, but that would be enormous and i'm not sure the game could handle that.