He seems un safe. I labbed him over the weekend and has easy has it was to pick him up I could pretty much low Parry or ssr & wiff punish him pretty good.
I still main the zoo keeper Kazumi so if she was doing so well punishing him and getting those wall splats and that good damage effortlessly then King, Goose, Feng, Xiaoyu and the Mishimas will have a field day.
Big giant swings and gimmicky tatics will only go so far once we take a look at Noctis Lucis Caelum.
I really like that name.
Noctis Lucis Caelum. Sounds so proper.
Noctis Lucis Caelum.
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I think its partly a spacing and toolset issue though. Conditioning will be important (it always is of course).. but I think he has everything he needs not to be terribly unsafe, if played a little more restrained. Right now we have Noctis players just swinging for the fences trying to land huge ass + launchers and silly shit. Character progression tends to follow an arc -
1.Release -
2.Gimmicks dominate. Heavy offense. emphasis on flashy/cool/overuse of 'power' moves. People talk about potential. 'Errybody plays.
3.Gimmicks start to get figured out. Defense vs character improves. Success rates drop. People talk about weaknesses/lacks. 'Errybody drops.
4.Offense starts to become 'real'. Gimmicks are moved aside in favor of learning grounded/correct play. Many assumptions derailed on all sides. Flashy stuff still usually a little too overused, but character starts to stabilize. Success usually still low. Playerbase in learning-phase. People talk about mid tier at best. Character usually ceases to be 'new'
5. Character is stable. Learning always continues, but the core is established. Good moves/strategies have been identified. Dumb shit and gimmicks have been identified. People talk a little more about where the character ACTUALLY falls.
There is a 6th step that has to do with where the character ultimately ends up, ie if the character was OP as fuck or just super popular you'll have a large number of players.. if the character was weak or weird, or just difficult in some way, they become rare, etc. Eventually a 7th step occurs where a character loyalist/champion shows up and wrecks shit with the character and everyone starts mumbling about them being a sleeper and shit.. but whatevs, that takes a while, lol.
We are in step 1, transitioning into step 2 right now. Once upon a time these steps had a huge amount of time between them, but not any more. Streams, Youtube, guides, forums, discords, all that spreads information around lightning fast and saturates the playerbase. A setup or something interesting found rips around the FGC at the speed of thought.
My point behind the gibberish is just that I think a lot of what people are doing IS unsafe and IS gimmicky, but its not necessarily "it" in terms of what the character can do. Like you mentioned SSing a lot of his stuff - and you're absolutely right - but he has some very strong options against SSing, 1+2 is over 40 damage, for instance. High starting, mid finishing. NC OH, and tracks. Unsafe, but the game is about reads.. So if you make a bad read on a SS, you eat a lot of damage. Additionally, ff1+2 is M, safe, tracks, CH launcher as well. uf4 is H, safe, tracking. Of course they all wall splat as well. His demoman has some l/r tracking as well but I dont know how extensively. Not very I dont think, but its there as an option in *some* situations.
Low parry. I dunno.. If you have a read, then LP is as dangerous for anyone as it is for Noctis? Unless I misunderstand? He has very slow lows though, if that's what you mean. I'll give you that free, he doesnt have a lot of low threat. Demoman is nice, but its slowwwwwwwww. My frame data says 19, but it feels slower to me. His db2 however isnt low parryable - unless I'm mistaken. It has followups on CH and does like 23 on NH and 27 on CH. 47~ with followup. It's got great range, and it shares a similar startup animation and sound effect with f1+2, a mid that must be techrolled back, else you get followups even on NH. Both are susceptible to SS though.
Whiff punishing I feel like is a matter of people learning spacing and enforcing it. Which kinda goes for any character when it comes to whiff punishing. Proper spacing and conditioning will make it much harder to make work - though I will give you that with his long recovery normals and such he's probably weaker than most to it.
All in all, I look at his kit and I see the same holes you do, but I also see ways to fill them in and ways to make exploiting them dangerous. 1+2 alone makes SSing randomly very costly, though ff1+2 is probably better all around for safety and all that. I think the holes in his game are being accentuated by the fact that we're seeing the transition to the second phase of a new character release, where gimmicks are falling away and anti-Noctis knowledge and such is stepping in and punishing the dumb shit. But people will persist in doing the dumb shit, because for the first week or so, it worked. Gradually though his offense will evolve into something more real, and things will level out.
Oh and he has a parry. Will it matter? Fuck if I know. Parrys seem strong to me in a ton of situations, but I never see them used at higher levels (or it seems like I dont) so.. fuck if I know, lol.
Now, Im shit. Liquid garbage. Im likely to lose to someone who throws their controller in the dryer and walks away. I'll get bodied by the Cottons Only dry cycle.. so take my opinions with a grain of salt, or an entire salt lick if need be, but that's the best I can do to explain why I feel the way I do about it. I do want to be clear, I dont KNOW what he is and isnt, and dont want to come across like Im drawing a line in the sand and saying THIS IS FACT. Merely that I see potential for more to Noctis than the silly shit we're seeing now. Eliza was thought to be pretty kinda weak for the longest time, but opinions have heavily shifted recently it seems and she's starting to see more play as people realize what she can do.
What's on paper is always a dangerous framework to build on in any FG, and Tekken is probably the absolute least tied to a characters statistical structure - and Im basing a lot of my arguments (not a great word for it.. call them, counter-opinions) on what Noctis is on paper.. because I have very little experience with him myself - and my personal experience with any character shouldnt be used to argue anything because Im such a terrible, terrible player - but really, no one has much experience with him.. so only time will tell. Hell, we may find out somehow or another, that wr1+2 is the best launcher in the game. Who knows.
IN the meantime.. I need to get some Noctis played today, so feel free to hit me up here or message me on Steam or anyone wants games on PC or PS4 (I have PS4 as well but its MUCH more reliable to contact me via the PC)..
So far Dragunov has won my little "who am I gonna main" contest. I need to see where Noctis falls though and if I want to grind the game out with him, Drag, or someone else entirely.. Drag is awesome, but I worry he isnt going to make me a better player in the same way some other character would. Josie needs to be in the running too though.. Damn shes fun.
Also, I agree. Dude has a pleasant, relaxing name. Like, I can imagine Monks chanting it to reach inner peace and shit.