Terribly sorry to double post, but may I ask why Lobo vs Aquaman is in Lobo's favor when:
1. We can't apply the most important thing about Lobo against him. The 33/33/33 mix-up is super unsafe against Aquaman. What I'm trying to say here is that, say you poke him with a D1 and go for the 21 mix-up. He can trait the minute he blocks the 2, get hit by the 1 and block hook charge or low shot/hook. Now, he has to guess between High/Low (Toss isn't an option because he took the hit from 21 and 21 xx toss is EXTREMELY negative on hit), but both options are unsafe. You try Hook Charge, you get B1 punished. You try Low Shot, you're getting D1 xx FTD punished. The only way you're staying safe in this situation is if you spend resources, like a bar or a trait shell. So lemme say that once more. You hit Aquaman with a D1 and go for the guaranteed 33/33/33 mix-up from 21. He takes the second hit, traits up and you're forced to react to him popping trait or try reading that and either MB your Hook Charge/use a shell on Low Shot/god forbid you tried toss.
With 2 xx whatever, I can see it being different, but he can, again, take the first hit and block whatever you canceled into. 2 xx whatever is also a lot riskier since you can't hit-confirm it like 21, you're just doing a normal and immediately canceling it into a mix-up option.
2. I also remember hearing that Lobo was one of the few characters that were able to punish trident rush MB with his standing 1. However, that means nothing when 113 is easily traited. You have all the time in the world as Aquaman to react to getting hit by 113 and trait out before the 3. Your fastest, damaging punish is easily trait-able.
3. Lemme ask another question: With the above in mind, how is Lobo getting his trait loaded against Aquaman? You can't just load it in the neutral because FTD exists. Your main mix-up is trait-able, so opening him up is a lot harder. Reacting to him doing something like a jump back to get away with a trait load is also punishable by FTD. Are you supposed to just take the 20% so you can get knocked down + end up farther away from him (Aquaman can do FTD MB > FTD and backdash twice to get to full screen) ? But hey, at least you can shoot him once you get close enough and he decides to FTD for some reason when you have trait loaded.
4. Another thing I keep hearing is that we out-damage him. His combos from B12 usually end in the early 40%'s. If you manage to get a raw toss on aquaman, you get 38% - 43% with trait shells. B12 xx MBB3 leads to 44% - 50% with a trait shell. 12 xx toss mb leads to 42% - 46% with a trait shell. If the Aquaman player decided to take a nap mid-game, you get 48% - 51% with one shell - 54% with 2 shells if you started with B2u1. 113 (which, like B2u1, will only work if the Aquaman player doesn't have trait or decided to go to sleep mid-game) leads to 45% - 48% with a shell. I'd like to believe I know optimal combos with Lobo, since I've been playing him for a year now. The minute you eliminate B2u1/starting with 113, your damage is on par with his, unless you use trait solely to do more damage whenever you open him up and don't care about sending him full screen afterward.
The one thing I can see that helps in this matchup is that Aquaman has terrible wakeups, but so does Zod and that matchup sucks. I don't see how it's in our favor at all, and would love to hear why it's been accepted by many as a winning matchup for Lobo.