Lets be serious about this rn.
If i'm right, in an advantageous guessing game with Ermac, I get 40%. Same with Lao, same with Kano.
If I shift the odds in my favor by using pounce, with Alien, I get just the pounce and sometimes nothing.
The only reason this isn't seen as a bad match, is because it's Alien. It doesn't even have anything to do with Alien's tools versus Liu Kang's, anyways. He'd do fine if he didn't get clipped by everyfuckingthing when trying to jump out.
If someone said "hey guys, if FF Liu Kang was at advantage or even, risk/reward wise after WP, would he be the best in the game?". Everyone would say yes. Obviously yes. The character is balanced by how he can be blown up after WP. If a character can't really blow him up like that, he's god tier.
And don't talk to me about Dab winning some sets. Show me a FF that punishes flip every time, a FF that punishes snag every time. Of course if you're treating Alien like he's safe, when he's not, he's god tier and unstoppable as well.
I'm almost tempted to say that Ejara and Murk threw those sets. I mean how can they not punish snag? I play Ejara and he punishes flip every time. I mean wtf? The Anti Alien Illuminati is in the full effect.