Had 40 matches yesterday with Dock (one of the most top rated players in times of MKX in Russia). Ended up loosing 10-30. I know that he is better player then me, but he is not even actively playing in mk11 but I am. And we used to play the same level... So taking out cases where I was mixed up or being read.. Here what I have to say.
He was playing Cassie with a 'Shoulder' and I was playing Kotal Buluc.
First 10 games were pretty even. Until he spotted that only way to be opened up by kotal is to get hit by f24 from the distance. Upclose everything I was able to do is d3 (8 frames). And vs his 9fr hitconfirmable launcher that was always a loose-loose situation upclose. I'm making good calls on FB and successfull FB'd his mids but then he started to throw me or use autoshimmy strings or delay mid for a few frames (in that case that means me eating a full combo, because good luck NRS FBing 9fr hit staggerable mid). Because we were playing offline I can't go fo staggers, because you know - he at worst he can poke out on reaction, at best he trades or get a full combo. Cassie's 11fr mid covers at least 1 kotal's backdash.. So even if I have some pushback for example like after blocked b223 I can't backdash, I have to block.
The funny thing starts at the corner, when due to pushback d3 doesn't reach. f4 on hit doesn't provide good advatantage to setup a ray or totem (if you f4 -> Totem, opponent can stand up and full combo punish you, at least Cassie can). And unblockable earthshake with sword worked only like once per 1-2 game. Otherwise he was just jumping over me and full combo punish. Looks like it is pretty reactable even after f3 (or f24) on hit.
Even when cassie does her -8 string there is nothing I can do against because she always can opt for a poke and only hitconfirmable scary shit I have is f24 (b22 even not hitting Cassie's block)
I don't want to say that Kotal is weak or downplay him. But good luck, hit confirming pokes into -9 high launcher without any mixup in it. You have to mistime it once to eat FB uppercut that nullifies all the damage you've done with your poke+jail string. It's never a risk reward in Kotal;s favour though it's such on paper.
Overall on paper Kotal (Buluc at least) looks great. But each time opponent guesses right, he at least get our for free (poke into mid, poke into jump) or full combo punish you.
I've recorder some of the latest matches from the set
https://www.twitch.tv/videos/490972697.
Today I've also watched Coach Steve's Kotal Buluc vs Grr's Geras (
)
It identifies the same issue, after Steve won 2 first matches and spend all his gimmicks he was completely reversed 6-0 by Grr. Grr as Geras was even spamming those pokes at the end of the battle because he learned that Kotal can do nothing in response.
On paper Kotal is really great. Because on FB he can launch anything with his super hitbox on u2. On paper he can Parry anything on read, then react on follow up and FB u2 it, or just pure punish it... Or he can poke out and hitconfirm in no meter high launcher if Opponent is pressing buttons during hit stun (why worthy opponent would press anything during hit stun??? better try FB this, right?) but that just doesn't work as intended vs opponent who knows what he are doing.
Freaking mids fucksup everything Kotal has upclose and even at semi-mid range.