Blewdew
PSN: MaxKayX3
You pretty much described the matchup perfectly. 8-2 would intent that kabal as a character completely carries the player and it‘s almost unwinnable for jade like ever. But it‘s not like that. Both characters have to work hard to get the win. Kabal isn‘t overwhelming jade nor is jade doing this to him. It feels like such a controversial matchup, there are a lot of people who have this matchup between 6-4 and 4-6 and they all have valid points.Note 1: Everything in quotations below is from @Blewdew. Everything else in the quote boxes is @GLoRToR.
Note 2: I'm under the assumption that the Jade in this case is ED while Kabal is using either variation since it isn't specified. As such, only his base kit is being considered.
Note 3: I main both Kabal (Clean Cut) and Jade (Emerald Defender), having plenty of experience on both ends of this matchup. I'll be speaking to my experiences here and trying to give both sides.
As @wsj515 has said, training mode is inconsequential here; but I'll address the point anyway.
Full screen: has to be a read by Kabal to land, running the risk of eating ~20%, a knockback, a throw to switch sides, etc. The world is Jade's oyster if she successfully baits the Dash.
Far: punishable on a nigh-perfect timing the instant Jade begins to raise her hand. Still much too risky for Kabal to be tossing out willy nilly, though can be useful if Jade isn't being careful on Glows.
Mid: decently punishable, but ranges from relatively simple to tight read depending on range.
Close: lol Jade, what is you doin honeyboo. Kabal can just smash your face in, no nomad dash needed.
Another key point is that Kabal's standing projectile startup is slow enough that Jade can easily Glow on reaction if she's mid screen away or further. Kabal has NO other animations that are even slightly similar at that distance, and the Glow isn't punishable at mid screen away or further if the Kabal tries to by sneaky by tossing out a S1 to bait Glow then following with Nomad Dash. If Kabal jumps, you can also immediately Glow through Kabal doing an air projectile if you read it, though this is more dangerous as he can instead opt for a jump-in attack. The issue is that Kabal jumping at Jade is a dumb idea considering her many anti-air options, but that's another area with which they can both mix it up as needed. This means that Kabal must respect the threat of Glow at all times, forcing the two into a dance of bait and switch on Nomad Dash, projectiles, Glow, and anti-airs (for jump projectile or jump-in). I'd argue that Jade wins this dance as the success of a single Glow activation means she gets to zone, which leads to the next point...
All strikethrough items are discarded as they are irrelevant to the matchup being discussed, adding nothing useful to the debate.
In the case of zoning against Kabal, the "good" tactic for Jade to utilize is mixing her 4 available projectiles to keep Kabal on his toes while keeping distance yet not backing herself into the corner too much. I'd argue that Jade can "successfully" zone Kabal in this case because Kabal can't be trying to contest projectiles with his own due to the threat of Glow (see prior point). Kabal now has to deal with the slog of slowly approaching Jade safely or risking Nomad Dash reads on Glow. The issue here is...
I agree with Glortor to some extent as Jade's projectiles are pretty reactable by a patient player, especially at far ranges. Mind games of staggering projectiles aside, Kabal needs only to just.. walk his way in while avoiding all that's coming his way. The issue here is that now Kabal leaves himself vulnerable to B2, D4, B1 / B12, F2, and Nitro Kick at a minimum once he's reached his destination. Jade risks a good bit on many of these options, but she can also optimize her selection based on distance. Kabal must now be mindful of all Jade's projectiles AND her poke options, though this generally just means he needs to neutral duck regularly and block on reaction for F2, B1, and D4 which isn't too difficult. The main threat is when Jade decides to stand her ground, forcing Kabal to have to make a move and take a risk.
Depending on proximity, Kabal is close to (if not at the point of) being able to check Jade with B1 and dashing in to D4. It's risky as he could eat a wild poke; but on the flip side, Jade must now choose very carefully what options she utilizes to keep Kabal at bay as multiple are punishable on block or whiff. A sudden projectile from Kabal, air or ground, can also be useful this close as Jade can't really Glow on reaction at this distance. The key here is that once Kabal successfully gets in on Jade, he has much better close tools than her so he needs to do everything he can to stay close and abuse that advantage.
It's hard to say who "wins" this dance when both players are patient because there's also the magical option of... nothing. Simple waiting and reacting. It's a very complicated situation, but I feel Jade barely squeezes out the advantage just by virtue of forcing Kabal to take risks and potentially some projectile hits/chip. Once Kabal gets in and manages to stick to Jade, however, the scales tip slightly in his favor.
The key thing to this matchup is that neither Kabal nor Jade gets to just trounce all over the other. Their respective tools work as a counterbalance against each other's, forcing each to attempt to keep the flow (and distance) at their respective advantage. Each player has to be mindful of their choices at all times because nothing is risk free due to each other's options.
@GLoRToR I apologie for talking you down this much. Though you have to think about what makes a matchup a 2-8 and if this applies to the kabal and jade matchup, which it doesn‘t. Everything above 4-6 is more than a slight advantage and 2-8 is just pure domination. Jade can and should zone kabal as long as possible, jade is one of the few characters that doesn‘t have to worry about diagonal airsaw so she should make the best out of it. Fullscreen kabal can‘t do anything beside making a super risky ND read. If he manages to get in it‘s business time for him so try to get him fullscreen again.