Doing shadow kick to start the round can be punished with an 80+% combo. I may be crazy, but I consider that to be a risk. Any good Smoke needs to know that Cage wants to get the life lead in the MU and the shadow kick is probably the laziest and MOST expected way to do it. What else un-expected can he do that is a fast move like a shadow kick that can grab a quick life lead? Yes jumping is suicide, and refusing to jump is fine...and it is easy to get in with Cage but it presents other options that Smoke can react to in the footsie game like smoke away into smoke bomb to catch whiffed normals, d4 to start pressure. Cage's pressure locks Smoke down completely, but I think you are the one downplaying the MU in terms of what options Smoke has. There are still plenty of opportunities to get damage, but Smoke can obviously not pressure Cage for very long.