So, I've learned new things with Kano over time. Some good (anti-air b+1!), more bad - it's just not realistic for him to keep characters out the entire match, and his mid-range game isn't quite as strong as I had thought. There are a number of normals that have similar range to b+1 and f+1 even when it looks like they don't (e.g. Cage f+3), and more importantly Kano gets spaced out hard by most d4's. His own d4 isn't very good, so things get rough for him when someone has a good one and gets around his zoning.
I'm pretty sure at this point that Kano loses to Jax, Cage, and even Sonya. Freddy is a slight disadvantage for him as well. Rain seems even-ish though I still have only played a little against him.
EDIT: updated matchup numbers...
vs. Kung Lao: 5-5 (KL having a crappy d4 himself means you can really outpoke him)
vs. Raiden: 5-5
vs. Kabal: 4-6 (will be at least even after hotfix, quite possibly Kano's favor depending on how iAGB is changed)
vs. Cyrax: 4.5-5.5 (should be at least even after hotfix, Kano has a great mix of zoning and anti-zoning for this match)
vs. Reptile: 5-5 (EX slide is nice but not a huge deal)
vs. Johnny Cage: 4-6 (looking at this compared to KL matchup...better normals, better offense, EX shadow kick, and even better anti-air & upball punish)
vs. Sub-Zero: 4-6 (you can EX knife ice blasts on reaction and still block, I think)
vs. Kitana: 5.5-4.5 (Kano definitely didn't get his old knife back, not sure why people kept saying that)
vs. Mileena: 4-6 (teleport owns your zoning, no answer to d4 besides jumpkick and hope you don't get AAed with teleport or roll, can't stuff her wakeup moves anymore with the new patch)
vs. Jax: 4-6 (comparing this to Cage...much better projectile, AA is similar, far more anti-zoning options, offense isn't nearly as good midscreen but better in the corner)
vs. Smoke: 5-5 (still suspect this is slight advantage for Kano, especially with the incoming nerf)
vs. Liu Kang: 5.5-4.5
vs. Nightwolf: 5-5
vs. Scorpion: 5-5
vs. Sektor: 4.5-5.5 or possibly 4-6 (Kano has no + on block moves so he can jab most of your pressure, f+1 whiffs when he crouch blocks, he probably wins projectile trades w/ the knockdown, not entirely sure how practical iATU is on knives)
vs. Sonya: 4.5-5.5 or possibly 4-6 (the matchup I may have the least experience in...just thinking along similar lines to Jax/Cage, her payoff isn't as big but she has d4 of the gods with much better options afterward than Mileena, and she can also make you pay for jumping over d4...and her jab is a huge problem for your offense a la Sektor)
vs. Noob Saibot: 6-4 (air ball on reaction is too strong here, sweep is a great poke against upknees, he can't get out of pressure very well)
vs. Shang Tsung: 5-5 (highly tentative)
vs. Ermac: 5.5-4.5
vs. Cyber Sub-Zero: 5-5 (smart use of divekicks means that you can't really play footsies with him)
vs. Sheeva: 6-4
vs. Baraka: 5.5-4.5 (again, can be hard for Kano to deal with d4...gotta turtle real hard, luckily normal and EX blade charge can always be punished with ball)
vs. Stryker: 5.5-4.5(tentative, weaker zoning than Sindel but one of the best armor moves)
vs. Quan Chi: 5.5-4.5 (tentative number, Quan's definitely dirty enough to hang but his normals don't scare me)
vs. Sindel: 5.5-4.5 (zoning is rough but EX ball helps and she gets mauled up close)
vs. Jade: 6-4
vs. Skarlet: 5.5-4.5
vs. Kenshi: 5-5 (your reactions w/ ball have to be on point but this is doable)
vs. Rain: 5-5 (very tentative)
vs. Freddy Krueger: 4.5-5.5 (can air ball his stuff on reaction, but still a lot of effort & risk to get in compared to what you get up close)
