I think Sonya vs. Shang is 5-5.
This is exactly what I said. However, I have not played nearly enough top-notch Shang Tsung users to fully understand this match-up. I don't think anyone has, really; there are few Shang players. One of my biggest pet peeves is that there are all these good characters that just don't get the representation they rightfully deserve...I guess people get discouraged by learning curves.
As I stated above, I don't have any experience to brag about in the match-up, but from what I am seeing...
For one, Sonya can't outzone Shang Tsung. It's the 8% from her projectile versus a jungle of skulls from Shang, and if one skull touches you, you are eating over 30% unbreakable damage PLUS a Soul Steal and then you have a few seconds of a Sonya mirror to worry about with a Damage Boost applied to the impostor, or he can put you back at zoning range and then you gotta work your way through the storm of skulls once again.
Yes, I know the Soul Steal isn't all it's cracked up to be, but c'mon...given the kind of character Sonya is, why would you pass up a few seconds to use her when she can do greater damage? You don't want a few moments of d4 - Military Stance, EX Cartwheel, or instant-air divekick?
Back to the skulls. Even whiffing d4 just to use it as a tool to approach Shang is not what I would encourage. You are risking the skulls again, or even a well-timed Soul Steal and you have the above scenario to worry about. I would instead use the threat of her shoulder charge from the Military Stance to perhaps unnerve the sorcerer.
Worse yet, if you get caught in the corner with Shang in control, put down the controller...because you've just lost. In the few times I've been caught in the corner, I could not get out
at all, and you should be able to vouch for this, Cowboy. Once you end a corner combo with an overhead skull, you only have to block and watch what I do: if I try to escape with EX Cartwheel, you can block and take back pressure control; if you see me block the skull, you get free f4 - skull pressure. And an attempt to jump out? Shang Tsung's anti-crossover d1 would like to say hello. Now I realize Sonya has a strong corner game of her own, but...well, read on.
With this kind of match-up, Sonya is forced to remove her Sonic Rings from her game and take it up-close and personal with Shang, and like with Cage it becomes a session of 50/50 kombat, and I do not just mean mix-ups. Both characters have armored moves that they each have to watch for...Sonya's EX Cartwheel and Shang's EX Soul Steal, both of which are safe on block and lead to high reward if they hit. I don't want to give you about ten seconds full of an empowered Sonya and you don't want to give me a full combo that ends with a Stance mix-up. In a battle of armored moves, the one that was activated second will beat out the first.
It should be noted, though, that Shang's Wake-Up game isn't very reliable...Tom would agree with this. If you knock him down, Sonya is in business. So hope you get a correct guess from her mix-ups.
Now like I've said, this isn't a match-up I run into often...I still need to get in those consistent practice sessions with you like I resolved to do. But until then, I am not convinced that Sonya has any overwhelming advantage in this match-up and will therefore stick to the notion that it is 5-5.
