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Coronavirus (Covid-19) Discussion

Anarchist_Gib

Anarchist_Gib

Shao Kahn main, please your send prayers!
Marlow said:
Not really. It's purely speculative, and just a bit too much risk for me. I stick with index funds, they tend to do better over the long run. If you can time it right gold can work out though.
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I've got no issue with index funds, but upon what do you say that they do better in the long run? 10-year return averages don't seem to support that at all.
 
Marlow

Marlow

Champion
Anarchist_Gib said:
I've got no issue with index funds, but upon what do you say that they do better in the long run? 10-year return averages don't seem to support that at all.
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Most studies I've seen shows that on long term returns, when factoring in dividends and reinvestments Equity beats out gold. https://freefincal.com/gold-equity-40-year-comparison/ Obviously that can depend on the exact start date and end date used, and the length of time used, but in general Gold has similar or worse returns and more risk.

Gold is purely speculative. If someone wants to keep it in their portfolio, fine, although I think Bond Funds are a better option.
 
Anarchist_Gib

Anarchist_Gib

Shao Kahn main, please your send prayers!
Marlow said:
Most studies I've seen shows that on long term returns, when factoring in dividends and reinvestments Equity beats out gold. https://freefincal.com/gold-equity-40-year-comparison/ Obviously that can depend on the exact start date and end date used, and the length of time used, but in general Gold has similar or worse returns and more risk.

Gold is purely speculative. If someone wants to keep it in their portfolio, fine, although I think Bond Funds are a better option.
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It should be mentioned that particularly at a time like this, gold is serving its purpose as a reliable hedge. Particularly those who wisely invested in the mid 2000s to early 2010's but now find themselves hard pressed to maintain their establishments. Most pawn brokers have managed to secure themselves as "essential" places of operation but default rates are unprecedentedly high, meaning that in many instances they are literally a one-way money window. There has yet to be legislation regarding forfeiture of items, but the PR nightmare most small establishments would experience upon forfeiture of items during a crisis would doom their viability so they refrain. It is the hedge of gold and other precious metals alone that enables many of them to stay afloat comfortably where market investments are suffering. Of course, having a properly diversified portfolio goes to ensure that one is better able to prosper in ANY given scenario, eggs in one basket and whatnot.
 
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Marlow

Marlow

Champion
Bonds can work just as well as gold as a hedge, without the volatility and opportunity costs.

But whatever. Owning a little bit of gold to balance out a portfolio isn't the worst thing ever, and sometimes it works out.
 
Juggs

Juggs

Lose without excuses
Lead Moderator
A big issue I have been noticing is people’s general idea of how long this is going to “last”. For some reason, a lot of the mindset I’m seeing is that we will be “back to normal” anytime soon. There is absolutely no evidence that this is even remotely the case. It doesn’t help, or course, that certain media outlets and people in positions of power keep promising this idea that this won’t last much longer. Now more than ever it’s apparent how little research people do, and how much they listen to whoever tells them what they want to hear.

It’s also worrying that at this point, there’s still a large number of people who STILL think we have been overreacting. I read a thread on twitter where so many people were doing something that a lot of us predicted would happen. They think this is overblown because the death rates aren’t higher, or as high as projected. Without realizing that the reasoning for this is because of the measures that have been taken. The craziest part about that is, these people even mentioned that “they” would say that the reason the numbers are lower than projected is because of the measures taken. It’s baffling to me to read how some people think.

So, as long as there’s people with that type of mentality, this could go on for MUCH longer than expected. And in fact, could get much worse.
 
Jynks

Jynks

some heroes are born, some made, some wondrous
Jynks said:
One of the things that really worries me about this situation is that if we do not get 100s and 1000s dead, then there will always be some group of fucking morons that say the entire thing was a beat up, fake, unwarranted panic and stuff like that. So if we do everything correct, by taking all the precautions and our very actions basically control this problem , then many people will just not believe we had a problem in the first place, simply as we did so well at responding to it.

The worrying thing is what happens next time, touch wood. I mean in comparison to some things, Covid19 isn't even that contagious and defiantly isn't as deadly.

My nightmare scenario is that through all the actions we take, the pandemic is controlled and then some time latter a faster or much deadlier pandemic happens and people will simply not believe. They will go, "well, we just had a depression from the markets crashes and lost billions in tourism and sport and it was all for nothing, so we are not going to do anything this time"

It is like if we do really well, it will be worse next time... and if we do only "ok" and there is enough tragedy to make people take it seriously we would be better protected next time.

To be clear I WANT nothing to happen, but I just know that some fucking lame twitter freak will say "this was rubbish over reaction" and get a billion people on that train and when the "reaction" itself is what will possibly save us.
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Called it​

Now no one is going to take it seriously when the zombie apocalypse starts.
 
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Juggs

Juggs

Lose without excuses
Lead Moderator
Jynks said:

Called it​

Now one is going to take it seriously when the zombie apocalypse starts.
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Yup, 100%. I knew myself, you, and others mentioned this before. So when I was reading it actually happening, for a moment I thought I must be dreaming and was about to wake up. With me being sick, I have been taking dozens of micro naps throughout the day. For a brief moment, I thought “oh, this is too surreal to be actually happening”. But nope, just very predictable people being predictable.

It is sad how accurate your post is. Honestly as I said, I knew this was likely to happen as well. But didn’t think I’d be seeing it so soon.
 
Z

Zer0_h0ur

XBL tag: South of Zero
Juggs said:
A big issue I have been noticing is people’s general idea of how long this is going to “last”. For some reason, a lot of the mindset I’m seeing is that we will be “back to normal” anytime soon. There is absolutely no evidence that this is even remotely the case. It doesn’t help, or course, that certain media outlets and people in positions of power keep promising this idea that this won’t last much longer. Now more than ever it’s apparent how little research people do, and how much they listen to whoever tells them what they want to hear.

It’s also worrying that at this point, there’s still a large number of people who STILL think we have been overreacting. I read a thread on twitter where so many people were doing something that a lot of us predicted would happen. They think this is overblown because the death rates aren’t higher, or as high as projected. Without realizing that the reasoning for this is because of the measures that have been taken. The craziest part about that is, these people even mentioned that “they” would say that the reason the numbers are lower than projected is because of the measures taken. It’s baffling to me to read how some people think.

So, as long as there’s people with that type of mentality, this could go on for MUCH longer than expected. And in fact, could get much worse.
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Yep. People were calling this as soon as curves began the slightest of bending.
There are simply too many uneducated idiots out there incapable of 9th grade level thought processes, combined with too many people smart enough to understand, but greedy enough to lie to those idiots. Vicious cycle.
 
Juggs

Juggs

Lose without excuses
Lead Moderator
Zer0_h0ur said:
Yep. People were calling this as soon as curves began the slightest of bending.
There are simply too many uneducated idiots out there incapable of 9th grade level thought processes, combined with too many people smart enough to understand, but greedy enough to lie to those idiots. Vicious cycle.
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You are 100% correct. It’s a combo of sad, frustrating but also not surprising at all.
 
portent

portent

Apprentice
Hey all, just a little injection of info from someone who spent a lifetime studying baseball and a college career of infectious disease.

The model that our government is using is the IHME model.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Before even looking at the model and it's projections, lets first look at the recommended quarantine time for anyone infected or exposed, which is 2 weeks.

From my experience with infectious disease, here is where you can start the timer:

1. If you were exposed, but either asymptomatic or not infected, the timer starts from the day you confirm your exposure and start your quarantine. That is DAY 0, NOT DAY 1!

2. If you confirm you are/were infected, then the timer starts the day you are declared "recovered" since your body can continue to shed the virus for days, or weeks afterward. So the day you are declared recovered, is your DAY 0.


For a state to truly be "clean" here's a rough, ballpark timeline.
-IF (and that's a very specific word) everyone were to follow social distancing and quarantine recommendations, then in 2 weeks to 3 weeks, a state can consider all uninfected "clean".
-HOWEVER, there will still be hospitalized infected, potentially spreading the virus to health care professionals, as well as asymptomatic carriers spreading as well. It will require 2-3 weeks from the time the LAST infected person is either declared recovered or has passed away.
-Following the infected being declared recovered and social distancing for another 2-3 weeks, there needs to be a final 2-3 week social distancing period to minimize a resurgence and ensure anyone who is an asymptomatic carrier to be "clean"

For a state, roughly 9-12 weeks



On a national level, we cannot then start the NATIONAL TIMER until the LAST STATE with high infection rates meets the state criteria listed above.
-This means that we have to WAIT, even if your state is declared "clean" for the last "dirty" state to become clean. Once that happens, the NATIONAL timer starts.

Nationally, roughly 3-6 weeks from the time the last state is declared "clean"

This would ballpark at a 4-6 month time frame from now.


The IHME model is predicting that we will be clean NATIONALLY around the middle of June.

I would call that "Miracle Case Scenario"

That is the scenario if we didn't have if we didn't have moron teenagers hanging out right now as if they couldn't get infected.
That is the scenario if there weren't any asymptomatic carriers.
That is the scenario if everyone was practicing social distancing.
That is the scenario if healthcare workers and all essential workers weren't bringing the virus into their "clean" homes.


The IHME model is a very optimistic model, but I don't consider it realistic. I would not be surprised if we don't see a return to "normal" until late October/Mid-November 2020.
 
Juxtapose

Juxtapose

Master
The federal government here as enacted the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy program. This program is intended to help company's retain employees and not have to lay them off. Basically, company's that qualify will receive from the government 75% of their employee's wages.

So as of Monday, I'm not longer laid off, I've been recalled. Everyone is still working from home, the office is closed as Ontario is still under a state of emergency until May 12th, so I've been informed nothing will really change for me.

I'm basically supposed to stay home and make myself available for the company if needed, otherwise I can go about my personal business and while I won't be making my normal salary, I'll be getting over 50% more than I was getting under the Canadian Emergency Response Benefit I mentioned before.

This is excellent news!
 
Rip Torn

Rip Torn

ALL I HAVE IS THE GREEN.
Juggs said:
Test completed. It was extremely painful, but also very quick. Probably like 10-15 seconds. Results should come in within approximately 48 hours.
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I'm assuming you got the deep nasal swab? Was it just painful for the 10-15 seconds and then it goes away, or can you still feel some pain afterwards?
 
Arqwart

Arqwart

D'Vorah for KP2 copium
Juggs said:
Test completed. It was extremely painful, but also very quick. Probably like 10-15 seconds. Results should come in within approximately 48 hours.
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This is one of the main things keeping me secluded as I cannot stand shit in my nose. I can't imagine someone jamming a swab to the very far back of your nasal passage and assaulting it.

Hope your results come back negative, Juggs!
 
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