TYM’s Tier List Discussion Thread

[CrimsonShadow]

Tier lists are supposed to be based on how many matchups a character wins or loses.

Guaranteed no one knows or has enough matchup experience right now to declare dozens of matchup numbers.

Is there a way we could mature into talking about strengths and weaknesses, without having to force stuff into a predefined tier list less than a month into the game? @Slips mentioned something like this recently and he was 100% right. We should just talk meta.

 

[wsj515]

Tier lists are supposed to be based on how many matchups a character wins or loses.

Guaranteed no one knows or has enough matchup experience right now to declare dozens of matchup numbers.

Is there a way we could mature into talking about strengths and weaknesses, without having to force stuff into a predefined tier list less than a month into the game? @Slips mentioned something like this recently and he was 100% right. We should just talk meta.

What does a meta discussion even look like? Is a tier list discussion not a catalyst for discussing the meta? No one is claiming to have perfect matchup experience, so let's have fun actually talking about the game knowing our opinions will evolve over time and not have the 9th Towers of Time thread.

 

[CrimsonShadow]

What does a meta discussion even look like? Is a tier list discussion not a catalyst for discussing the meta? No one is claiming to have perfect matchup experience, so let's have fun actually talking about the game knowing our opinions will evolve over time and not have the 9th Towers of Time thread.

You could easily just do that without people arguing pointlessly over whether a character is 'S' or 'A' 3 weeks in. So I guess that's my question -- why do we have to prop it up with tiers?

 

[stokedAF]

Jade is pretty solidly mid tier, the same people who are so hardly downplaying Jade right now are the same people who downplayed Star Fire.

Edit so I'm not triple posting: I think people are sleeping on Shao Kahn, but it will take someone with really good execution with wave dashing and hit confirming f3 to really show his potential.

Yeah she seemed really good to me. I think learning how to do decent with Kahn has set me up to learn better with other characters because he really is all fundamentals. He doesn’t have mixups or anything fancy so when I played jade it blew my mind lol. I don’t know how to wave dash so I’m going to look into that but f3 is my goto.

 

[Juggs]

Interesting to see the downplay. Specifically with Baraka. He has great damage potential, good krushing blows, a half screen unblockable command grab that is very quick, one of the better fireballs in the game, has probably the best D2, the back spikes in the other variation is very good, and other stuff I’m probably not thinking about. But he has some MU’s that are probably not too great, especially vs good zoners and characters that can ignore HIS zoning. Which is why he isn’t S+ tier. Who else would you put in the top 10 to replace him?

Doesn't the very concept of tier lists assume equally skilled players playing at the highest level?

Kinda. It’s based on perfect play at the highest level, with no human error involved. But it’s also largely base on matchups. That’s another reason why early tier lists aren’t too reliable. But I figured it was time to start the discussion.

 

[wsj515]

You could easily just do that without people arguing pointlessly over whether a character is 'S' or 'A' 3 weeks in. So I guess that's my question -- why do we have to prop it up with tiers?

Lol I'm not sure you read my post - I'm saying that discussing a tier list is simply a way to provide structure and promote discussion of the meta. Say you're with friends discussing a book you've all ready - Its way more substantive to say "what do you think of x aspect" rather than "what do you think about the book."

 

[CrimsonShadow]

Lol I'm not sure you read my post - I'm saying that discussing a tier list is simply a way to provide structure and promote discussion of the meta. Say you're with friends discussing a book you've all ready - Its way more substantive to say "what do you think of x aspect" rather than "what do you think about the book."

Yeah, I was postulating that we could provide a starter for a discussion about the game's meta without having to artificially group things into tiers, since the tiers themselves tend to be a distraction and people end up talking/arguing just as much or more about the letters as the actual gameplay.

They also tend to set ideas into people's heads about how good a character is supposed to be.

 

[Juggs]

Tier lists are supposed to be based on how many matchups a character wins or loses.

Guaranteed no one knows or has enough matchup experience right now to declare dozens of matchup numbers.

Is there a way we could mature into talking about strengths and weaknesses, without having to force stuff into a predefined tier list less than a month into the game? @Slips mentioned something like this recently and he was 100% right. We should just talk meta.

MU numbers are even more pointless and arbitrary than a tier list. You can talk about MU’s without throwing in MU “numbers” that aren’t even based on what they’re supposed to represent. They cause too much misconceptions and they also hinder the narratives when it comes to the matchups themselves.

But yeah we can discuss MU’s in here, that’s kinda the point.

 

[wsj515]

Yeah, I was postulating that we could provide a starter for a discussion about the game's meta without having to artificially group things into tiers, since the tiers themselves tend to be a distraction and people end up talking/arguing just as much or more about the letters as the actual gameplay.

They also tend to set ideas into people's heads about how good a character is supposed to be.

I would hope that most people realize that the tiers are pretty meaningless right now and will change over time even if the game doesn't. The people who focus too much on the actual tiers probably wouldn't be providing that great input into a pure meta discussion anyway.

 

[CrimsonShadow]

MU numbers are even more pointless and arbitrary than a tier list.

But you can't have a proper tier list without counting MUs, lol. It's the only even semi-objective way to form an opinion, otherwise it's just "Well I think this character is godlike so [insert tier here]"

Or you get the "those tools" memes that 16 Bit used to talk about all the time.

Arguing over individual matchups is probably far more useful at this point, because no knows enough of the entire set of MUs in the game to fashion a proper tier list at this point. Better to just argue over the 2-3 that you're actually moderately familiar with.

 

[Syd Barrett Lives]

Question to all experts:

do you think that with kustom variations (instead of the tournament ones we got) tiers would look different? And if so, how?

 

[Peckapowa]

1. The S tier characters barring erron black, have overpowered tools. Erron imo is the most complete character in the game and has everything, but nothing glaringly overpowered or "busted". Geras, Scorpion, and Sub have weaknesses but are broken due to overwhelming strengths. SUB, GERAS and SCORP all have overwhelming neutral advantages imo that are debatably unfair.

Geras's (infinite warden) low projectile has too fast startup and recovery, forcing other characters to always be in serious danger anywhere on the screen especially because it leads to the best knockdown game in the game. It causes you to either overly turtle or take unsafe risks in the footsie game because you can't move freely and react to it consistently. His weakness is that his ranged mids are unsafe so there are distances he's meant to be weaker at, but his LOW projectile combined with amazing dash speeds completely nullifies that weakness, it also completely nullifies zoning.. He is the best character in the game imo when you consider his damage as well. Also is f2 is a bit slower than some of the absolute best (9f) mids in the game which have extremely high value. It doesn't matter though.

Scorpion - Great stagger game. has a very good ranged buttons and pokes. Lacks the high end 9/10frame mids upclose similarly to geras, however doesn't care. His teleport completely shuts down zoning and the cancel is extremely strong and basically circumvents any spacing or zoning in the neutral and immediately forces guessing. The guessing is his advantage, because he can follow through with the teleport or cancel, or even just follow through with the jump. He knows which option he is choosing and doesn't have to always commit he can simply walk back/ block bait pokes etc. Meter expensiveness and damage differential make him weaker than geras.

Sub - very similar to these 2 characters in a way - lacks a super fast mid, but iceball wins the zoning war ; that plus his slide is so fast and his OH projectile is so fast that he really dominates a lot of the characters in neutral. His neutral plus strong mixup options, good crushing blows, staggers, mobility etc. make him way stronger than a lot of the cast.

EB - has everything - but nothing quite as dominant as the characters above - but he doesn't have their weaknesses. Broken fatal blow

A - Tier -
Sonya's damage is amazing - but i feel her mixup isn't quite as big of a deal as people make it out to be midscreen and she plays an honestish neutral. Shes fringe up there
Kabal - 0 gaps - 9f frame - solid spacing normals - functional mixups, op fatal blow - annoying zoning - can counter zone. Kind of like erron black but just not quite as strong. Very solid character.
Cetrion - Will struggle with characters that DGAF in S+ - but has very strong zoning / footsies. Her db1 in the geyser variation is very strong albiet flawless block is a counter. has holes upclose but her mobility, the stupid ability to position swap with her tp and her zoning are put her up there IMO.
Liu - carried by how strong f4 is imo - and flying kick helps him in a lot of mus. weak mid range footsies are his issue imo but he's so strong upclose i feel he belongs up there.
Skarlet - if people get too good at flawless block she might have a problem, but i still feel blood flow is underrated and her range and zoning is extremely strong. will have bad mus with characters that DGAF but will have a ton of winning MUS.
Cassie- very complete kit, excels as zoner / footsie character. Does not have the strongest offense and some of her strings cause her to overcommit in whiff punishing/ pressure. Is fringe a/b only because i feel her fatal blow is the worst. Otherwise on paper she beats a lot of characters.

B
Jaqcui is fringe a/b imo - maybe im selling her short with sonicfoxes ass whooping. Amazing 9f mid and solid pressure up close - but i feel she loses in neutral to quite a few cahracters. I probably should have put her a. I feel her offense isn't as strong as lius but her footsies are better. HE can zone a bit though.

Kitana - very vanilla character with good air control and footsies. LAcks offense or strong zoning to be any higher. I probably should have put jaqcui a thinking abut it.

Jade- extremely solid runaway and turtling. But has holes in her game and punishability. Also pretty much has to runaway. Sleeper character i think though.

Baraka- i might be wrong based on tournament results - but i feel his mobility and true offense is lacking. I think characters can people keep away with him really well and he excels when that isn't the situation. great damage and buttons though so i might be wrong.

Jax- has alot of great tools, 9f mid, command grab - ranged normals. However, feel his variations are either lacking damage or good crushing blows and his mixups don't lead to that much. Originally thought he was a when i was looking at him and his frames / toolkit etc.

Noob- not a great zoner - but shuts down zoning well. his 9f mid is great with pushback and he is very difficult to whiff punish. Great damage, but i just feel he lacks strong keepaway like cetrion and skarlet- and lacks real offense. Watching cassie demolish him at the summit really makes me think hes just kind of a solid semi viable character. Very vanilla.

C -

Johnny - Good mid ranged normals. HAs some cheesy frame trap stuff - but i just feel he has no real niche in the long run
Kano- good knockdown pressure- poor up close normals - not great zoning and not consistently hardhitting enough (he nicks and dimes).
Raiden - HAs to play super lame - good turtling but stronger offensive characters will be him. Good mindgames but feel he's similar to mk9- maybe im sleeping on him. f4 can't be hit confirmed so it's awfully commital and his zoning is not threatening so there's a really lifelead dependency. Also startup frames on tp make counter-zoning more difficult.
Kollector -just a weird character - not really a complete kit of buttons and at midrange he has things but they don't feel threatening and feel other chars are way better up close. Is annoying with the DOT damage and projectile but i feel he just doesnt seem strong.
Kung lao - good mobility / damage - can footsie and whiff punish but nothing much else. f1 is great but f13 is a risky commitment. He maybe worthy of b tier though.

D tier- i just don't see these characters moving up - maybe frost and maybe someone gts really good at snowballing with dvorah. Kotal can wavedash super well IDFK.


TLDR - i just felt like typing this shit out. probably hard to read.

 

[Circus]

I'd put sonya in s and not s+ if you have a projectile that low profiles she's practically screwed in neutral and on top of that i'm waiting for people to realize you can just d+1/d+2/d+3 a lot of her pressure

Kitana/Kano should trade places as well. If kitana does use her zoning variation she can't get decent enough damage from it and the other one is just loses to so much of the cast. Kano has a lot more control with his stuff and a better generic zoning tool with knives. Kitana ultimately boils down to b+2 string and grab mixups. Kano has more stuff to work with and characters in a tier have something to force you to respect them while kitana doesn't really have anything. Kano has a lot more options that force you to respect him.

Sonya has low pokes that could assure that she could jail on hit and allow her B1 high string to be unduckable.
She also has some safe mid options to mix in to force people to respect her. I agree she isn't absolutely braindead, but she could definitely open people up easier than more than half the cast and her damage makes it so her risk/reward is skewed HEAVILY in her favor in many matchups.

Kitana doesn't only have B2 and grab mixups.
Like Semiij has displayed, instant jump2 still combos into a grounded combo on hit and it is basically a psuedo-instant divekick that dodges the opponent's attacks in the close to mid-range neutral. She also has her B1 string that is very underrated because the anticipation for the third hit flawless block opens up for even more grab mixups.

Her fan is also only 15 frame startup. Sure, it's not the crazy amazing fan toss from previous games, but because it's 15f startup, it could be used about jump distance as a pseudo-ranged-poked which catches almost any action the opponent does. This character has tools. She doesn't have anything spectacular, but she has the tools to win in most of her matchups.

Kano has things that make the opponent respect him but his risk/reward is very unfavorable.
Air Ball is incredible; it's a great whiff punish tool just like Kung Lao's divekick. It's his best move by far because it could be used on reaction so it doesn't need to be yolo'd ever. All his other tools rely on the fear of his command grab and normal grabs. His command grab has great recovery and sets up for good oki, but again, his tools to enforce his grab game are all punishable or too slow to be used up close.

His low pokes don't jail enough that he is granted a free mixup like Sonya and he doesn't have a good safe mid like Sonya that he could use to gain respect up close. Mashing out D1 vs him is a legitimately a good idea most of the time. You risk either taking a low poke that doesn't assure a mixup, or you force Kano to start F2ing which is full combo punishable on block and can't even be staggered because it's a single hit.

His F4 overhead is also 25f startup and once someone is fully adjusted to the matchup, you'll be fortunate to land one F4 a set. B3 is good at mid range, but with 17frame startup, it can't reliably be used up close and doesn't compliment his game enough to make up for his shortcomings in other places. His knives are also 20f startup, so while they do force some characters to approach on him, he can't surprise people with it at mid-range because it's very reactable unlike other faster projectiles like Sonya, Johnny, Cassie, Baraka, and Kitana's.

He isn't terrible. He is actually good if you condition your opponent on wakeup good enough. Honestly though, other characters with no command grab at all have better grab mixup games than him and it really is his only reliable strategy at a higher level.

 

[NeonGroovyGator]

As for the list, my experience is limited, but from what little high level play we've seen lately and some impressions, I'd say that:

1. An argument could be made to raise Kitana, because she's very safe. I'm not sure she belongs with the rest of A, but she's maybe a little below A+. I can really see her becoming one of those characters loaded with even matchups in the future, with very low variance.
2. Sonya and Subby are arguably swapable. They look like the weakest of S+ and strongest out of S, respectively. But Cassie isn't far behind.
3. If someone can explain me how Johnny's on the same level as the rest of A, I'd be happy. Not being cynical or anything, I legit haven't seen him perform that well yet.
4. The bottom characters seem right., Kollector is the only one who's maybe higher but I haven't seen anyone make him work yet.

But other than that, this game is insanely balanced by early game NRS standards. I feel like only the bottom 3 need help right now, and even the top tiers aren't as monstrously stronger than the rest as we initially thought.
EDIT: btw I've seen some concerns from Cetrion players that she'll really fall off once people learn to deal with her wall properly (the first wall is punishable even if you amplify it, because there's a gap). I'm not sure if people are already dealing with that but I can see that becoming a problem for her up close game in the future.

 

[DixieFlatline78]

I feel like the more I play against and learn about Erron Black, the less I feel he's top tier. He's got fuzzy-able pressure that he has to commit to, his long range mixups can be avoided, the rifle is great but not impossible to play around, his primary footsies string has a big gap, and his damage is typically on the lower end. I'm not saying he's not challenging to beat sometimes, but it seems like once you learn the match up a lot of his pressure is trivial.

I also think Kotal Kahn, Kung Lao, and Raiden are underrated, though I'm still undecided on whether I want to keep playing any of them. They're all like one change away from being really strong.

 

[HapHaxion]

If people can come up with rough ideas for MU numbers if applicable, there can be a tier list sorted by numerical total where the character with the best MUs overall wins (i.e. if someone wins an MU 6-4 they get 6 points added to their total while the other character gets 4, etc) and then minor adjustments can be done from there based on overall damage output and stuff like that. Might have to average between the variations though.

 

[ogrimtitan]

I feel like Sub-Zero is getting up-played just a bit. There’s no doubt he’s a good character. Easily top 10, and on the cusp of top 5. But putting him in the same tier as his bro Scorpion is just not right, IMO. Scorp has EVERYTHING. He controls the neutral by existing. When he fights, he’s not fighting you, he’s fighting his own potential mistakes. If he can minimize those, he wins. Sub, on the other hand, at least has to work for his wins and play actual matchups.

I think part of Sub’s up-playing is coming from conflating his variations. People are freaking out about his mix which, while powerful, is far from overwhelming. People are just freaking out that he even has it to begin with, but the better players are already finding its weaknesses. Meanwhile, people are also talking about how good slide and air axe (combined with ice ball) are at controlling the neutral. Then they’re saying Sub dominates neutral and has a 50/50 vortex, forgetting that he can’t do both at the same time. Both his variations also come with moves that are total dead weight.

Meanwhile, Scorp has all his best tools as part of his base kit and then just chooses whether he wants to focus more on mixups or raw damage. Like does he have a single difficult matchup?

 

[Zoidberg747]

I was going to Quote the stuff about Baraka but there's a lot so i'm just tagging the people i'm responding to.

Anyone putting Baraka in B tier or lower has no idea about the character tbh. That being said @Circus zoning is Baraka's biggest weakness, his spark is overrated and you aren't going to be able to counterzone with it. I personally don't think this is that big a deal because he has great walkspeed and you can chip all you want but once he gets in Baraka can take half your life with a combo. Also @Apex Kano you can punish Chop Chop on block and whiff every time. It's -17 on block and has 30 frames of recovery. Take your time and wait until it's done, wait a half second, and then punish. You have much more time than you think.

Now on to @SaSSolino question on why Baraka is good (he's top 5 imo, at the very least in the top 7 or 8). His Marauder is his best variation but Bone Picker by itself is probably top 10 too. I'll break down Marauder first:

• Has some of the best pokes in the game. Df1 has insane range and can check a lot of characters moves that have pushback that others cannot. Sub's b32 is an example of this. His jump in df1 is also arguably one of the best ji in the game due to its range. D4 is slow but it has a wonky hitbox, low profiles and has great range. His sweep is also top tier with its range.
• His regular buttons are also really good. F44 is safe and one of the better footsie tools in the game because it can whiff punish, anti air, and be staggered. His B2 is slow but is a safe OH option that anti airs and knocks people down. F1 is a high but it iis fast and also has good range. F44 is so good that most Baraka's will use it more than anything else (F44 also has an invisible hitbox past his foot).
• Any punish in Marauder leads to a 50% combo (including ticks) assuming he still has access to the Gutted KB which is 80 damage tacked on to already 40-42% combos. Even without KBs his damage is still in the 35-40% range which is really high. With Fatal BLows he can get up to 60% combos assuming he gets a KB (F44 for whiff punish and 124 for block punish) and even without KBs he gets 50% with FBs.
• People say he lacks offensive tools but forget about throws being 50/50s. His throw range is really good.
• Marauder is a character that requires good neutral and defense. He will get better once people start flawless blocking better (he gets 50% combos off of that too) and once defense in general gets better.
• Marauder mainly struggles against good zoners as he does need to get in. He also has a harder time opening people up, you have to play patient and wait for the opponent to make mistakes. He might struggle with MUs where the character is safe on everything and/or can zone very effectively.

Bone Picker is slightly worse but still probably top 10 honestly:

• He has some of the best tick throws in the game. He ticks off of D4, 11, B3, D3, and I think F1. B3 tick can catch anyone going for a flawless block or he can finish the string which is safe w/ pushback.
• His lunge is insanely good. It has a huge hitbox which will catch you if you backdash, are slightly in the air, are duck blocking, standing up etc. Good players won't get hit with a naked one in neutral but its always an option.
• His oki in this variation is great. Anytime you get hit with the lunge you get put in a guessing game. If he lunges again and you get up you get hit. The only real way out of this is to roll backwards (lunge catches forward rolls IIRC), delay wakeup, or wakeup U2/U3. He can also tick throw you. He can also walk back until he is out of wakeup U2 range where lunge can beat it, and he can also wait for the delayed get up. He can also of course just walk up and regular throw for a free 50/50. He can convert almost anything airborne into a lunge to put opponents in this guessing game.
• His Spines is a great anti-air. It combos if you hit them close enough to you. It beats crossovers and has a really great hitbox. It can be used to check opponents or get them off of you. It also allows him to combo in the corner. It is also safe.
• He does less damage than Marauder but has much better offense(although he still gets 50% with FB and 30-40% in the corner meterless). He has more risk if he whiffs the lunge.

The main thing with Baraka is he has two variations that cover each other's weaknesses. Marauder struggles against zoning and aerial control (Anti Airs are meh) and opponents who can stay safe easily. Bone Picker opens up opponents and forces them to react, and shuts down aerial opponents. Bone Picker is more risky and cannot punish opponents very hard. Marauder can stay safe pretty much the whole match and can punish for half of the opponents life. With these two variations I highly doubt he is anywhere below top 7 or 8.

 

[M2Dave]

My tier list of the top 3 most absurd comments in this thread thus far.

1. Geras struggling versus zoning

2. Baraka being a mid tier character

3. Noob being a high tier character

Keep them coming, though.

 

[Rozalin1780]

An argument could be made to raise Kitana, because she's very safe. I'm not sure she belongs with the rest of A, but she's maybe a little below A+. I can really see her becoming one of those characters loaded with even matchups in the future, with very low variance.

I feel that Kitana can hang with most of the cast. The only time she really struggles is against the top tier characters who either ignore neutral or mix her to death. At the same time, I feel there isn’t one character who feels “free” when playing her.

My biggest issue with Kitana, currently, is her U2 is just abysmal compared to everyone else in the game. It’s becoming more and more apparent that flawless block counters are a huge part of the meta and at times it feels like Kitana cannot even play this major part of the meta. The number of normally punishable flawless block gaps that her U2 whiffs on is staggering. I mean, Sub Zero can sweep her with b4 at point blank range then not move an inch and U2 will whiff on wakeup.

But all that said, I think her placement in the original post is fairly accurate. She’s got the tools to get the job done most of the time, but you’re going to have to put in work to know what moves you can punish and with what option on top of having solid fundamentals to go anywhere with her.

My 2 cents.

 

[Peckapowa]

My tier list of the top 3 most absurd comments in this thread thus far.

1. Geras struggling versus zoning

2. Baraka being a mid tier character

3. Noob being a high tier character

Keep them coming, though.

How do you think baraka does vs cassie, skarlet, cetrion, liu kang, jade, sonya, kabal and erron black??

 

[M2Dave]

How do you think baraka does vs cassie, skarlet, cetrion, liu kang, jade, sonya, kabal and erron black??

I am not a Baraka player. I only fight against him. While zoning is an issue against Marauder as Zoidberg outlined, one can assume that the highest damaging character in the game is unlikely to be mid tier. He has 50% combos that can easily be hit-confirmed. Against defensive players, he has a krushing blow on both the forward and back throw. He has great jumping attacks and a serviceable projectile.

 

[Vslayer]

It’s probably accurate. I’m a Kahn player but I tried jade and was amazed at all of her options. But apparently she’s ass too. Aside from Baraka I’m out here swimming in low tier lmao. Having a great time though. Hopefully my dude shang has some tricky unfair shit so I can bask in all of that glory.

At this stage stay with them, they’re getting the buff treatment for sure.

 

[Peckapowa]

I am not a Baraka player. I only fight against him. While zoning is an issue against Marauder as Zoidberg outlined, one can assume that the highest damaging character in the game is unlikely to be mid tier. He has 50% combos that can easily be hit-confirmed. Against defensive players, he has a krushing blow on both the forward and back throw. He has great jumping attacks and a serviceable projectile.

I admittedly probably underrated him tbh but i'm wondering how many matchups he might be at a disadvanage in. Great players using him in tournament says something but in the long term sometimes big damage becomes less irrelevant when people play more precisely and press advantages more. That damage is also gone when you leave marauder, both variations can't be played at the same time.

 

[Zoidberg747]

How do you think baraka does vs cassie, skarlet, cetrion, liu kang, jade, sonya, kabal and erron black??

This is just my take, a lot of these aren't with a lot of experience but w/e it's early and subject to change:

• Erron is probably close to even. He can punish any F4 with F21 and can flawless block it. Erron doesn't lose to anyone imo but Baraka can hang. I could see it leaning in Erron's favor though.
• Cassie is prob even. Her zoning is annoying but she doesn't have anything that he can;t really deal with. He just has to play pretty patient.
• Cetrion is prob even or maybe even advantaged for Bone Picker at least. Once he gets in she'll have a hell of a time keeping him off. Spines will also force her to not use air lasers once he gets close enough.
• Skarlet i'm not particularly sure. But her flawless gaps can be hella exploited in Marauder and her zoning won't keep him out forever. I predict at the highest level this would be in his favor, but that assumes highest level execution.
• Liu Kang he might go even or maybe wins. Most of Liu's pressure can be interrupted and Baraka outfootsies him. Liu's zoning is good though which is why I think it's even.
• Jade I don't have much experience but I think he wins. Her zoning isn't as good as other characters and he outfootsies and outdamages her.
• He might lose to Sonya. Her zoning is really good and once he gets in she is still so much of an offensive threat. IIRC he can't really punish her for going for 50/50s and her footsies are legit.
• I could see an argument for him losing to Kabal. Kabal's buttons are amazing and his zoning is a pain to deal with. I don't know if that is enough to make him win because of the damage Baraka can do but I can see an argument.
• You didn't mention it but i'm pretty sure Marauder loses to Sub Zero. If he blocks sub's d4 he is out of range of everything. He gets outfootsied, cannot use sparks or risk getting ice ball counterzoned, and Sub's walk speed makes it really hard to bait a whiff punish.