Mind elaborating on why you think GM wins against Predator. D4 and B2 demolish the clone and he is able to win the full screen battle with air disks and plasma blasts. He can also punish Ice clone cancels with an armored launcher. I have always put HQT vs Gm as a losing MU for GM.
No worries. I'll give my analysis.
Predators D4 goes right through Clone, as does B2 - but that's as far as his dirt goes this match up.
He cannot actually use an armoured launcher to punish the IceClone on reaction, or any Clone cancels with an amoured launcher, not even in Warrior variation - hell he can't even reversal punish SLIDE with any armoured or launching specials. He CAN get through Ice Clone with armor on a well timed read - but so can practically the entire cast, leaving him with less options than most of them in the category of reversals and armor. In fact I think one of the strengths Predator has here is actually he opposite, that he DOESNT need to armour on a read to go through Clone, he can B2 straight through it and hitconfirm into big damage. However, it's exclusively on read for all intents and purposes - he CANNOT do it on reaction.
This is because unless you are perfectly spaced, you will get caught by the Clone. Try it for yourself, it's easy, the perfect spacing is right when you start up. Start an AI game, record AI, wait a period of time you won't remember, then Clone with Sub. Now react to it with Predators B22 (and remember this is a trained reaction and you know exactly what's coming so Preds reactions will be even slower in a real game) If you take even the tiniest step forwards or backwards prior, you get caught. The advancing properties push you into the string.
This makes B2 strictly a tool for beating Clones on reads, for all intents and purposes. And seeing as its 17f and starts High, means if you start makin these reads it's just as available for your opponent to start making them as well, and he can easy Slide through the B2 on read, and you are also opening yourself up to a random D4 or even D4xxClone. Is B2 a bad tool here, no, it's a good OPTION, that I bet Reptile wishes he had, but it doesn't just easy-mode the neutral, this is just what the neutral plays around. No different to any other match up for Pred is an advancing check that beats out advancings or any funny business at range - no different here, except Sub has one of the best low advancings in the game.
Looking at D4, is a good thing has against Clone in this match up, it gets rid of Clone on reaction, at least from point blank distance. It catches Sub if he uses B33Clone, F42Clone or B12Clone - doesn't catch F4Clone or D4Clone from any range however, or a neutral Clone spaced a bit further back then most characters D1 range (best way to describe the range I could think of sorry). But once again, this doesn't just easy-mode the neutral - his D4 is balanced. If Predator is throwing out D4 against Subs Clone cancels, Sub can easily do the string for any of them, and bait the D4 - it leaves Pred -13, and even with pushback it's punishable into full combo with F4xxIceball or F42 hitconfirmed into EX-Iceball if you don't trust your punish, as it still a pretty tight one - but worst case scenario, it's an easy Slide reversal for Sub if you are baiting the D4, so the risk/reward is actually heavily against Pred here. Once again, D4 is still an option which is better than a D4 that just gets caught, but it doesn't auto win the neutral.
Now this is just D4 and B2, aka a spacing poke and a 17f High opener respectively. Even if these tools WERE just autowin the neutral tools that destroyed the Clone every time like some may think - he CANNOT live by these buttons alone. He isn't DVorah or KJ, who actually have legit openers and strings with their extended hit boxes. If he only pressed D4 and B2 all game you'd be at a massive advantage even without ever using the Clone - the fact is he can't, and that's before we factor in the less obvious setbacks I just explained to using those moves. His B3, S2, S3 F1, plenty of other buttons that start key strings, all get caught by the Clone, and while he won't get caught by Clone if he only uses B2 and D4 he can't win a game like that, and even if he could, 17f startup on B2 and the fact that it starts with a high makes it a pretty situational tool highly dependant on spacing and thus, often highly readable, even more so if the neutral were to gravitate around it. He needs to press other buttons, and all those buttons are very dangerous for him.
Then looking at the rest of the match up - Predator has a really bad time in the corner, he really has very little ways to get out. He basically has to guess right twice in a row on a 50/50 before he can even press buttons, and Subs B2 is completely safe for him to use here, unpunishable, even on block, even with meter. With 3 Bars he can X-ray punish the B2, or armor on wake up (punishable on read by Sub tho), otherwise nothing. To put in perspective, Quan Chi has MUCH easier time getting out of the corner against Sub. In general, that mean when Hunter gets his corner game started, he's always practically one Ex-Slide away from a loss. HQT playing the full screen game also means that he's almost always just a light connect away from a corner carry, and while HQT wins the full screen game EASILY, I do not believe he has any hope of keeping Sub out with Slide, ex Slide, fast run and good jumpins.
These are the reasons why I think this is a winning match up for Sub when both players know the match up properly. It's easy to think on surface level "predator can go straight through clone with some of his normals, that must make GM an easy match up for him or at least stop him from using Clone in the neutral" but looking a bit deeper, neither of these are the case. My initial impression were that Predator would wreck Sub, but once I had studied the MatchUp, Predator became a very winning fight for me. I actually think GM is one of his harder matchups.
