I hear you -- in terms of player standing, tournament record is definitely where it's at.I get what you're trying to say, but using casual games as a determining factor for anything is completely ass-backwards. It goes against the standard of every other competitive event in the history of the universe. There is nothing on the line in casuals, and it's an opportunity to try new things and learn. That is why wins and losses do not count in a casual setting. Not to mention the yomi is competely different in a long set vs. a ft2 or 3.
But in terms of determining a matchup, tournaments don't carry nearly as much weight. In such a short set you're trying to 1) Adjust to whoever you're playing, and how they're playing and 2) Adjust to whatever gimmicks/character-specific strategies they're making use of. Plus the tournament conditions and whatever pressures come along with that.
Emprically there's very little you can gain from a couple of games played under these conditions as far as determing all the ins and outs of a MU.
It's in longer sets, when both players have an opportunity to feel each other out, see all the gimmicks and tactics, and basically exhaust each others' resources and tools, that you have an opportunity to see what really works and doesn't work in a matchup overall. It's not a matter of personal pride like the tournament record stuff; just of mining possibilities and collecting lots and lots of data. That's impossible to do in a miniscule set under tournament conditions.
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