I updated the mu number in the op and moved the old list into the second post(so we can laugh at in the future).
Most of the number still feel pretty fuzzy to me, I'm not really dead set on any of them.
Martian Manhunter is really terrible. He can pretty much just spam overhead teleport and Ares has to work his ass off and take risks to stop him.
If he does instant air overhead teleport Ares cannot block it as a cross up to punish. Either you don't get crossed up and you take the hit or you block it as a cross up but still end up in front of him. Even if you do successfully block it as a cross up, the best punishes I've found are 123~fireball for 14% or d1~d4, j1, b13 for 23%.
Ares also cannot use mb b3 to punish overhead teleport. The hit box on b3 is poor enough that the armor will take the hit and the b3 will whiff. You can use mb f3, but this takes away the option select where if you react too slow or he does mid teleport you just end up blocking, and occasionally it has a similar problem where the armor takes the hit and the moves whiffs. Even if you do land the f3 you're probably getting 32 or 33% out of that(plus you spent a bar and took 4% damage) which is less than he gets from oh teleport on hit.
The post-OH teleport game is a bit better for Ares. B13 actually beats out his traited s3, his mb b3, and push. However and hit it pushes him fullscreen and Ares options for checking him if back dashes or jumps back aren't nearly as good. Just stopping him from jumping back into oh teleport again can be a nightmare.
Basically the risk reward for throwing out random overhead teleports is pretty horribly skewed in MMH's favor. Ares is going to be working his ass off to stop MMH from teleporting, and the amount of energy and mental focus required for Ares to stop MMH from teleporting whenever he feels like it leaves Ares very vulnerable to all the other horseshit MMH is going to throw at him.
On top of how good his teleport is in the neutral game, it also wrecks your ability to zone. He can teleport on reaction to any of your projectiles and blow you up. In addition he can do it on reaction to your teleport and blow you up. Invis is completely useless as well, he can teleport completely safely on it.
There's a bunch more and I'm not done grinding the match up yet, but I'm already getting salty just thinking about it. Basically Ares is stuck try to walk in with his shitty mobility and even when you get things aren't good. God forbid you have to fight this character a stage like watch tower with respawning interactable that he can throw constantly.
This match up is starting to remind me of pre-patch Superman, both in how bad it is and how Ares has the shittiest of shitty options to deal with even his most basic tools and is even lacking option that are 'universal'. I'm almost to the point where I consider success against MMH to be not rage quitting before the end of the set
BadLarry