i used to play smoke and i had played playpal numerous times (offline & online), and such is my input:
matchup: 5.5-4.5 cage. i think if cage has p1 adv. it's 6-4 though
smokes lack of armor is killer. EX shake is better than armor in most MU's, but it gets molested by d3's, not to mention that you have a small window input it. EX drift has vulnerability frames. if you are too close and try to drift out, he can shadow kick you
stage advantage is meh, honestly, because ultimately meter helps, but he doesn't do any damage on projectiles and outside of the reset smoke really has very little use for meter (excluding EX shake, however was addressed before)
p1 adv. is good but ultimately all you get is a d1~SB after a 3d12
smokes best tool: using EX shake after a frame trap
cage's best tool: f3, what'd you think?
smoke has to play defensively, but smokes projectile throwing game is weak as hell.
NOTE: would be 6-4 for cage if he couldnt EX shake outta frame traps, so
subzerosmokerai agreed when cage gets the life lead you may as well put down the controller and lick your own butthole