Five-motherfucking-five. And I'll tell you why. I'm only going to explain it once, so read carefully.
Regardless of whatever you may think, it takes effort for Sonya to get in on Kitana whether she has the life lead or not. You can duck the fans, sure, but if you're just whiffing pokes trying to get in, you run the risk of eating Kitana's long-ranged f2 1, or f2 EX Fan which also leads to a full combo. Dash-blocking doesn't lessen the danger of the fans as her hitbox has to be lifted high enough for them to make contact. And the shoulder charge from Sonya's stance also loses to fans, so it isn't as useful.
Jumping to approach is no better, obviously. One air fan and you can say good-bye to around 30% of your life and you're sent back to zoning range. Kitana's air control is greater than Sonya's. I've had my uppercut anti-air attempts stuffed by her jumpkick, which also leads to a combo off an air fan. She can also feint the jump-in using a fan to bait a failed anti-air attempt so that she can charge in.
Both these characters can punish each other at high damage levels without meter. This is another aspect of the match-up that makes it even. You cannot make mistakes if you want to keep your life bar. Potentially it could take two full combos to finish you in one round, if my calculations are correct.
Once Sonya scores a knockdown, she has an advantage...for the most part. If Kitana tries to wake up with anything other than a Square Wave Dash, you can do a d4 without cancelling into Military Stance or Cartwheel so as to overrule the attempt. If you do cancel into a special, your hitbox will lift back up and you will be caught in Kitana's attack. Square Wave Dash is Kitana's best Wake-Up option at this point - actually it is her best escape option in general, as it will always get her out of range from Sonya's attacks. You can't even hit her with a Sonic Ring before she recovers.
If you expect to stand back the entire match trying to lame Kitana out while you're ahead in life, good luck with that, because it's unrealistic. Like Sonya, Kitana has solid ways of entering close-range combat. Good as Sonya's projectile is, Kitana's fans and long-range normals give her just as much of an edge. She has options to even the playing field.
If it's d4 - Military Stance - f1 that bothers you so much, let me tell you this: so what? After blocking the f1, the fastest follow-ups Sonya can get are d1 and instant-air divekick. The d1 can be blocked and counter-poked (she can't get another stance follow-up off the blocked d1 as it provides no cancel advantage), and if the divekick is blocked, Sonya loses half her life. A third potential option is EX Cartwheel, but this here is a guess as to whether Kitana will anticipate this or not. She can jump away as the move is 23 frames, or she can block and gain momentum. If she doesn't read the EX Cartwheel, she loses 30% and is put into another mix-up situation. Ultimately, you can afford to take a little chip off of that, it's no big deal when you have the ability to make up for it with tons of damage.
Corner games, you say? What corner games? I referred to Kitana's best escape option in Square Wave three paragraphs above. Good luck trying to contain her there and then having to work your way in again, Sonya. Admittedly, I don't see Kitana's corner game as anything better than Sonya's, unless I am wrong.
And Kitana's d1...God, I hate it. It's just as annoying as Sonya's d4. Long range and keeps out the opponent pretty well. It does fail as an anti cross-up, however, but saying Kitana is free to cross-ups shows how ignorant you are of her potential as a character, even if you have the threat of divekick to turn it into a 50/50.
While we're on the subject of the d1, I'm hearing how Sonya's divekick can blow up Kitana's pokes. Well, that's only true if her poke is whiffed; on block, I'm sure as Hell not gonna punish it when I know you can cancel into Fan Cutter so that if I try, you either send me back to the other side of the screen or get massive hit advantage which allows you to do a jump-in punch 1 1 2 Cutter. It may not be a combo like how one would get off a divekick, but it's still a pain to contend with. I don't even think Kitana's at enough disadvantage off a blocked poke to be punished by the move.
I am not here to put Kitana players on blast, as I love their community to death, but why they have preached constantly about this match-up being in Sonya's favor eludes my comprehension. At one point, I had Kitana at 6-4 advantage, but changed it to 5-5 when I discovered how equal the threat in their options was, and still I find this match-up one of the most aggravating to play, even after months and months of playing MK9. I spend more than half the match chasing Kitana rather than beating the shit out of her.
It's gotten to the point where I prefer fighting Kenshi over Kitana. That right there just screams to you how much I hate this match-up, if it makes me want to fight that blind bastard with telekinesis that overpowers Ermac's.
This is not downplaying or up-playing at all. This is me relaying my experiences against Kitana to you guys. If you continue to insist that Sonya has the upper hand, then I do not know what else I can tell you. I find it insulting that some people seem to see Sonya as a character who doesn't need to work hard to handle a good Kitana, because ultimately, she does. Mind you, I do not have this view on Kitana as a character. I'm saying they both have to be on point.
So now that I have given my thoughts on the match-up, I leave it to you guys to give yours. Discuss, please.
