Match Footage EVO 2013 DJT vs. REO (Knockdown Correlation to Rounds Won)

[Protagonist_1]

In the past, I made a thread showcasing the number of rounds won in correlation to knockdowns in Street Fighter 4. It seemed pretty convincing that in SF4, there's a relatively high correlation to rounds lost compared to getting knock down (although there are more variables that play into a person winning a match).

(Infiltration vs. Momochi: correlation of knockdowns to rounds won)
http://testyourmight.com/threads/knockdowns-in-relation-to-rounds-won-infiltration-vs-momochi.45311/#post-1499161

This time I decided to try it for mk9 to see how it turned. I wanted to use (in my opinion) a match that had some of the best display of footsies and was relatively high stakes as well as the highest level of play.

I decided to choose:

Now this gets a bit confusing because using a breaker results a knockdown as well. End of round moves that would result in a knockdown were counted as well:

Note: the (*) means number of breakers included out of the knockdowns
Note: Standing resets were not counted as knockdowns

Match 1:
R1: Reo-1*/DJT-1
R2: Reo-3*/DJT-6
Match 2:
R1: Reo-5*/DJT-1
R2: Reo-2/DJT-7
R3: Reo-6**/DJT-1

Match 3:
R1: Reo-5**/DJT-2
R2: Reo-8*/DJT-1
R3: Reo-2*/DJT-5

Match 4:
R1: Reo-5/DJT-1
R2: Reo-4*/DJT-5
R3: Reo-3/DJT-0

Match 5:
R1: Reo-1/DJT-2
R2: Reo-5**/DJT-3
R3: Reo-1*/DJT-5

The other correlation I noticed was of course the stage size. Stage selection (stage counterpicking) relatively went back and forth, Reo having success in the rooftop stage (longer stage), and DJT having success in the initial stage and pit stage (smaller stages).

From observation, Reo has a lot more success in the mid screen range, able to build meter and keep DJT at distance while dealing bits of damage. The breaker count below is clear of this.

DJT 's primary focus was cornering Reo. This kept Reo on his toes and reduced the number of IAGB, thus reducing the amount of meter built. It also allowed DJT to close in more safely without having to take as much risk to get in, and also took Reo out of his comfort zone.
Non-rooftop stage knockdown average (including breakers):
Reo-3.25
DJT-3.125
Rooftop Stage average (breakers included):
Reo-4.16
Djt-2.5
Total Breakers:
Reo-13
Djt-0
*You can see how Kabal's meter building midscreen and zoning potential play a role in this number*

Total Knockdowns (Including Breakers):
Reo-51
DJT-40

Total Knockdowns (Excluding Breakers)
Reo-38
DJT-40

Remember this is a correlation, not fact. These numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, and are meant for open discussion as to why there might be a correlation (or not) and what other variables come into play for this match as well.

I would like to know everyone's thoughts on this match. I plan on doing this for injustice later in the future.
Footsie based clips:

Spoiler

Whiff Punish on poke

DJT walk back into standing 1 anti-air


Battle for space near the corner


Whiff Punish sweep by Reo

 

[REO]

This was a pretty good breakdown. And it was an excellent set.

A misconception about Cyrax's reset is some players think every breaker equals zero damage output from Cyrax. This is not the case for Cyrax players that are smart and utilize the unbreakable B+2 set-up. Each time you break Cyrax's reset you lose 30%+ at minimum. This is because you want to trade meter for meter with Cyrax so he is not always sitting on three bars and has access to his 100% combo. In almost every circumstance, it is smarter to lose 30%+ damage and two bars than it is to take 80% damage or break before Cyrax uses one of his bars.

 

[Prinz]

I know one thing, if the first stage were rooftop, REO would've reset the bracket -.-
Good thing MKX has different stage sizes too.

 

[YOMI MITYEAP]

I know one thing, if the first stage were rooftop, REO would've reset the bracket -.-
Good thing MKX has different stage sizes too.

saying "I know" is pretty bold lol. Anyways, they both had very good chances to take it, DJT was able to clutch it out 3 2 in an amazing set. Maybe they will meet again in mkx......

 

[KIllaByte]

EXCELLENT thread.
I'll be back to reply to it more in a bit.

 

[champdee]

pretty interesting...

edit: there corrected my spelling all for you @Eldriken lol kinda buzzed fuckin hmu on psn mk9 champdee nowww

 

[Prinz]

saying "I know" is pretty bold lol. Anyways, they both had very good chances to take it, DJT was able to clutch it out 3 2 in an amazing set. Maybe they will meet again in mkx......

The set was amazing, no doubt. It still amazes me how he standing 1'd out of Kabal's NDC (he has to have some secret tech for that). But the stage influence is pretty obvious, can't deny that. That exact clutch difference depended on the stage length.

 

[YOMI MITYEAP]

The set was amazing, no doubt. It still amazes me how he standing 1'd out of Kabal's NDC (he has to have some secret tech for that). But the stage influence is pretty obvious, can't deny that. That exact clutch difference depended on the stage length.

u can standing one if kabal does f4 ndc, sometimes it works if they dnt stop their pressure, and etc. Also stages shouldn't be different lengths, one of things I like the least about NRS games, just have them the same and leave it at that. The stages played a factor, but both of them could've won on any stage vs each other, a stage doesn't guarantee a win (DJT beat detroitballin at evo 2013 playing on rooftop day).

 

[Prinz]

u can standing one if kabal does f4 ndc, sometimes it works if they dnt stop their pressure, and etc. Also stages shouldn't be different lengths, one of things I like the least about NRS games, just have them the same and leave it at that. The stages played a factor, but both of them could've won on any stage vs each other, a stage doesn't guarantee a win (DJT beat detroitballin at evo 2013 playing on rooftop day).

Yeah, stage length do affect the paly, I agree, I don't mind different stage lengths though, they can be managed in tournament if they have a serious impact on the game. And REO is better than Detroit with Kabal.

 

[Protagonist_1]

I know one thing, if the first stage were rooftop, REO would've reset the bracket -.-
Good thing MKX has different stage sizes too.

You could argue Reo's chances would have been higher at winning, however DJT was playing out of his mind during this set. I can't say it would have led to a reset, both players where really playing their hearts out and djt's whiff punishing and counter poking where on point. Played the match to the tee.

Definitely though, how much the stages factored into this set is an interesting topic. However, I don't feel it's a primary reason for how the set went. Too many variables involved, same with knockdowns as well.

 

[YOMI MITYEAP]

Yeah, stage length do affect the paly, I agree, I don't mind different stage lengths though, they can be managed in tournament if they have a serious impact on the game. And REO is better than Detroit with Kabal.

I'm not arguing who is better (I think most of us have REO as the best kabal all time and I know I do), I'm saying DJT was very capable of winning on rooftop day, he lost the matches on that stage vs REO, but they were all very close matches that could've gone either way (same way with the pit stage when they were playing).

 

[Prinz]

Guys, out of 5 games 1 on medium stage an 2 on short stage length won by DJT and 2 on long stage length won by REO. I definitely see a pattern here. IF the first stage were long, concludng from this particular outcome, at that particular time, REO would have had better odds at reseting the bracket, that's all I'm saying.

 

[Protagonist_1]

Guys, out of 5 games 1 on medium stage an 2 on short stage length won by DJT and 2 on long stage length won by REO. I definitely see a pattern here. IF the first stage were long, concludng from this particular outcome, at that particular time, REO would have had better odds at reseting the bracket, that's all I'm saying.

I definitely agree with your statement Prinz, he would have had better odds at resetting.

Just to be clear, looking back at the match, the 2nd match at the final round (rooftop) @ 9:45, DJT had Reo in the corner and had the life lead. He very well could have took that match on rooftop. It all came down to Reo's amazing read on an ex dash, which if blocked Reo would have been down 2-1 in the set.

Although the stage selection does correlate with the matches won, it's not the sole reason of the win, which is what I always want to reiterate when I make a thread like this. I'm pretty sure we agree on the same points (I agree with what your saying), it just shouldn't be seen as the only reason (since whiff punishing, knockdowns, anti-airs, time spent in the corner can be considered as variables as well). I'm pretty sure MITDJT agrees with this as well.

Now how much it factored in to the set is a great argument that I would love to hear everyone's thoughts on. Keep in mind we would have to consider all other aspects of the match as well (match-up number, whiff punishes, space control, etc.)

 

[Protagonist_1]

Updated the OP with gifs of some footsie based clips

 

[T33-Kahn]

seeing those gifs makes me want to throw my injustice disk...

 

[STRYKIE]

Great analysis as always Protagonist. But I feel your coverage of this one was especially important since a lot of people looking from the outside in simply see the characters and their respective designs rather than how the match really went down.

It was not only a great demonstration of spacing awareness and forward thinking in the meta, but the stakes at hand that dictated how both players went about playing their footsies. Nobody was taking chances unless it was the absolute difference between winning/losing a round. Not everything was done perfectly, but it truly highlighted the difference between playing at an EVO grand final or in an East Coast Throwdown pool match.

 

[Braindead]

Those footsie clips are orgasmic, man.

 

[CrimsonShadow]

I love analysis

Checking into the numbers for Match 2 round 1, REO has a breaker counted as one of his knockdowns, but Denzell never broke in that round.

I think in general though, we should talk about what these numbers represent. Imo there isn't much to be gained by comparing knockdowns, because each character's meta is so different. For example, in a typical round Kabal may get several insignificant knockdowns via ground saw or hook toss, whereas Cyrax might land one significant hit and take the entire round.

So a better statistic to compare might be "significant knockdowns" depending on how things play out. But even then, some characters may derive the majoriy of their damage through other things (including chip in MK9 specifically), so it's still hard to just compare one vs. the other in a direct fashion.

I think that by far the most useful statistic in analyzing key matches would be a damage breakdown. So that would entail, tallying each bit of damage received, and what started/led to it. Then you could look at the analysis and see where people statistically got the majority of the damage that won them the rounds. Which starters were most effective? Which did opponents most often get hit by? Were chip damage and incremental damage more deadly, or was it the bigger mistakes? How much did the little gains matter.

Something like that would be highly informative and lead to a better understanding of what it is that is actually opening people up most of the time.

 

[Amplified$hotz]

People kept saying this match was boring. It's pretty awesome to me.
And "The Kabal Killer" is an awesome nick name.

 

[coolwhip]

Guys, out of 5 games 1 on medium stage an 2 on short stage length won by DJT and 2 on long stage length won by REO. I definitely see a pattern here. IF the first stage were long, concludng from this particular outcome, at that particular time, REO would have had better odds at reseting the bracket, that's all I'm saying.

Well, then REO should have won on the medium stage. I think the fact that DJT was able to win the one match on a neutral stage (which ended up making the difference) highlights the fact that he's the deserving winner. Your argument basically states: "if the conditions were in REO's favor, he would have won" which is kinda pointless. It was a great set. I'm sure REO doesn't need rooftop to win, but DJT just played out of his mind and overcame a tough match-up.

 

[coolwhip]

People kept saying this match was boring. It's pretty awesome to me.
And "The Kabal Killer" is an awesome nick name.

Who the hell said this match was boring? I don't know what they were smoking. MK9 at EVO 2013 was amazing. This set is probably the best out of the bunch. Two of the most fundamentally sound players in the community squaring off in the grand finals. Can't ask for a better sendoff for MK9.

 

[STRYKIE]

Who the hell said this match was boring? I don't know what they were smoking. MK9 at EVO 2013 was amazing. This set is probably the best out of the bunch. Two of the most fundamentally sound players in the community squaring off in the grand finals. Can't ask for a better sendoff for MK9.

To rationalize, it does get a lot of rep for just being IAFBs vs 80% BNBs.

 

[coolwhip]

I love analysis

Checking into the numbers for Match 2 round 1, REO has a breaker counted as one of his knockdowns, but Denzell never broke in that round.

I think in general though, we should talk about what these numbers represent. Imo there isn't much to be gained by comparing knockdowns, because each characters meta is so different. For example, in a typical round Kabal may get several insignificant knockdowns via ground saw or hook toss, whereas Cyrax might land one significant hit and take the entire round.

So a better statistic to compare might be "significant knockdowns" depending on how things play out. But even then, some characters may derive the majoriy of their damage through other things (including chip in MK9 specifically), so it's still hard to just compare one vs. the other in a direct fashion.

I think that by far the most useful statistic in analyzing key matches would be a damage breakdown. So that would entail, tallying each bit of damage received, and what started/led to it. Then you could look at the analysis and see where people statistically got the majority of the damage that won them the rounds. Which starters were most effective? Which did opponents most often get hit by? Were chip damage and incremental damage more deadly, or was it the bigger mistakes? How much did the little gains matter.

Something like that would be highly informative and lead to a better understanding of what it is that is actually opening people up most of the time.

It's also important to keep in mind that ideally, Kabal would prefer not to knock you down and use the F4 standing reset for more pressure and chip. (PS: If someone replies to this arguing whether this counts as a true "reset" and it turns into a whole new debate about the definition of the word: Fuck you, whoever you are ).

That said, I wouldn't say ground saw knockdowns are "insignificant" per se. I mean they do allow Kabal to continue his zoning and prevent the opponent from gaining ground. The reason I point that out is it could be tricky to specify just what excactly is a "significant" knockdown, especially because, as you said, it varies from one character to another.

To rationalize, it does get a lot of rep for just being IAFBs vs 80% BNBs.

Funny thing is, there wasn't a single Cyrax reset in the grand finals, if memory serves. So yeah, it's "rep" but it's an undeserved one.

 

[CrimsonShadow]

It's also important to keep in mind that ideally, Kabal would prefer not to knock you down and use the F4 standing reset for more pressure and chip. (PS: If someone replies to this arguing whether this counts as a true "reset" and it turns into a whole new debate about the definition of the word: Fuck you, whoever you are ).

I thought about that, but then I tracked the count, and it appears his juggle into standing reset was counted as a knockdown. That's why I didn't mention it.

 

[Amplified$hotz]

Who the hell said this match was boring? I don't know what they were smoking. MK9 at EVO 2013 was amazing. This set is probably the best out of the bunch. Two of the most fundamentally sound players in the community squaring off in the grand finals. Can't ask for a better sendoff for MK9.

The same people in the YouTube comments who say pig of the hut is trash, injustice shouldn't be in evo, etc. "all that reo guy did was spam the whole match" then came the kdz vs djt match and it was rip nrs.