I'd say 5-5 against SZ. Liu has no reason to do Low fireball, he can just zone with high or iafb. (If he goes low Liu won't recover in time to block the ice) Of course SZ can EX Slide to get in, but it can still be blocked. Up close Liu has faster strings. SZ might be able to keep him away with his Ice clone, but he risks eating one thing or another if predictable.