If all of those are playable as suspected, that's 17 out of 26. Only 9 spots left and we still need:
I like your list overall, I think it's very practical and reasonable, but I'm gonna pick a few bones.
- More from Kotal's court as it was heavily implied in multiple endings that Raiden is going after them and we need story fights. Erron is heavily impliead, we need Kotal and some other characters (D'Vorah at this point is probably working for Kronika after her last treachery didn't work out). I'd bet for Ermac over Reptile because of his presence as an assist attack.
Two points. First, I've heard that Ed Boon said that while there won't be any NPC fights (e.g. Rain, Baraka in MKX), there will be loads of NPC characters in general. This removes the "need" for Kotal Kahn to have a huge playable party as long as he's not a prominent antagonist. Most of them can be NPCs only. And it really doesn't seem like the plot will feature him heavily as an antagonist. Obviously the first "story" trailer (such as it was) could be hugely misleading, but with the ascendance of both Dark Raiden and Liu Kang/Kitana, and Kronika confirmed as final boss, it just seems like too much story already.
And secondly, even if he is a big time antagonist, I think that between Shang Tsung, Jade, Rain, plus Baraka, Skarlet, and Kano, enough of them could be made to join him that he'll have a huge faction without even needing Reptile/Ermac.
- Characters from the netherealm. We already have 4 revenants (Liu Kang, Kung Lao, Kitana, Kabal) and they might be enough, but probably one or two more would be better for story battles variety. My bets here would be Smoke and/or Sindel.
Four Revenants, plus NPCs, plus potentially one or more of Shang Tsung/D'Vorah/Noob/Jade/Revenant Baraka/Revenants from the past.
- We know about 3 characters that have been mentioned multiple times as being important behind the scenes leading to MK11, one of them is included above (Noob), the other 2 are Jade and Shang Tsung.
Err, could you elaborate?
- At least someone else from special forces: one or two of the kombat kids (Jaquie and/or Takeda) and maybe Kenshi for the adults.
Everyone is sleeping on Jax like mad. Fact is Jax hasn't missed a SINGLE GAME since he debuted. Not a SINGLE GAME. In fact he was originally supposed to be in MK1 instead of Sonya. If that doesn't qualify someone for irreplaceable OG status along with the other GOATS, I don't know what does.
I would expect one of Kenshi or Takeda to make the launch roster. Not sure which. Kenshi has more track record, Takeda has more momentum.
So, IMO, that leaves us with:
Kotal Kahn, Shang Tsung, Jax, Rain, Jade, at least one of Noob/Smoke, and one of Kenshi/Takeda.
That puts us at either 24/26 or 25/26 characters. Let's say 24/26. One of those has to be a new character. And the other one, let's get real crazy up in here and say Fujin.
Then KP1 can have Mileena, Kenshi/Takeda, and Noob, and KP2 can have Reptile, Ermac, and Reiko.
