I agree with all of this but if reptile gets an fb on screen the ball as in his court. (As it is with most of his matchups) when he gets in he has setups that are only escapable by jumping, i feel like if he builds the momentum hes hard for her to stop. (However the trick with this matchup is gaining momentum)
Edit: so i will agree with 4-6 sonya favor. However the matchup is still very winnable imo.
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Reptile cant get forceballs on the screen because Sonya can shoot twice before he can start his first forceball, escape by jumping isnt anything a Sonya player fears considering she has a divekick an air throw and her air-to-airs end in a reset mixup situation, while reptile has no air control what so ever.
A reptile player trying to put forceballs on the screen is like a Cyrax trying to catch a fireball spamming Kabal in a net.
Even if the reptile player gets the forceball on the screen she can just Ex Cartwheel it if you dash in, on block its safe, leading to her footsie game which is too strong for reptile, and on hit its 30% ish gone.
Sonya can swing the momentum right back easier than he can start it, on top of that she's probably got the biggest comeback factor in the game, so its hard for any Reptile to keep on top of her, especially since you're gonna have to poke at some point because her 7 frame jab will beat all your starters and her divekick kills your pokes.
Her D4 owns him within dash distance too.
Something I just thought of and would like to check is if Sonyas F4 makes it so she cant be dashed by Reptile? She can do it to hop over KLs low hat and counts her as airbourne so would dashes work? If thats the case then Sonya could probably spend alot of time throwing out overheads which are 0 on block and create nasty mindgames, and on hit give a safe jump.
The more I go into depth the more screwed it looks like Reptile is against her.
There is nowhere on the screen that Reptile dominates her in this matchup.
She wins fullscreen.
She wins midscreen.
She dominates up close.