I don't have any doubts your D2 will whiff. I'm just saying, in the cases where it does whiff because your opponents jump is SUPER shallow, you are better off AA-ing with a standing 1 anyway (or whatever your fastest high front punch is).
Here's an example (wait for processing). I probably would have whiffed in this case had I tried to AA her with a D2. Unfortunately I missed my standard conversion juggle, but you get the idea- you can actually get even more damage off these normally (even just following up with a d2 to end the juggle)