A lot of interesting points here, let me break it down:
It is indeed frustrating when you cant enforce your advantage when you knock down an opponent. And yes the wakeup system isnt perfect because, as you stated, you have a risk after you win neutral.
I want to address this idea that people can be random with their wakeups.
Human beings are
incapable of being random. We are creatures of pattern and adaptation. Ask someone to randomly generate numbers and you can see that they will
inevitably end up with someone kind of pattern. Wakeups are no different.
People may
appear random though. Let me give an example:
- P1 knock P2 down after a combo and then holds block, expecting P2 to wakeup attack (U3/U2/buttons). However, P2 rolls & gets the upper hand. If the next time P1 knock P2 down with that combo, P1 holds block again and they wakeup grab, you can't say P2 was random because both the roll and the grab are appropriate responses to someone blocking on top of you. I think we can agree that P2 read P1 in this case.
- Let's say P1 learned from his first experience and the same situation arrives later in the match. Instead of blocking, P1 decide to grab since he expects P2 to roll again. Instead he is met with U3. Was P2 being random? Maybe P1 could say "Wtf you never wake up U3, thats so random!" but is it? Or did P2 figure that P1 would try to adapt to his previous mistake and that a grab was the most likely adaptation. In which case, many wakeup options can be used to deal with a grab. Using a U3 for the first time doesnt mean P2 was being random, he just took a risk on a read
P2 took a risk because P1 could have expected P2 to expect a grab. It becomes a mind game. Just like so many things in this game. And mind games comes with risks. Which is why I agree when you say "It's impossible to read every option all the time". Uncertainty is woven into the fabric of this game, you have to choose the most likely scenario. Your advantage may not be guaranteed, but their wakeup isnt either. This is the reality of this game. But given the choice, I rather be the one standing than the one taking the wakeup risk.
I also don't believe you can lose solely on wakeups. Someone randomly waking up isnt getting far and if they are, then they either are playing very defensive players or their pressure game and/or defensive game (poking out of the opponents pressure for ex) are better than the opponent's.
And if you're facing players that expect you to play it safe on their wakeup, then maybe that's when you shouldnt play it safe and take a risk.