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Can Somebody Explain to me the d+1 Game?

Let's say I want to jab into pressure with that move. Are you guys able to confirm if d+1 hits or not and go into a quick string afterwards, or is it a complete guessing game?
When I try to confirm if it hit or not, the gap ends up being to big by the time I know it hit and go for the follow-up string, and if I just commit and it got blocked my follow-up string gets eaten alive when the opponent contests with buttons.

Does it work that way? Is it a RPS situation or can you guys confirm that visually?