No way is Imposter 7-3 for Ermac
I read this a bit late, let me elaborate:
Shinnok's mixup options:
b3 = overhead, -11 on block
- Ermac has 1 frame to punish with 2(22)
f4, hellsparks = low, -22 (on third hellspark) on block
- Ermac can punish with a teleport on the second hellspark (if you can react to the third hellspark not hitting you or read that Shinnok doesn't enhance it)
- Ermac can punish with telelift on third hellspark, given it's not enhanced
We can establish here that Ermac is at risk by being defensive
Ermacs offensive options VS Shinnoks offensive options:
8 frame jump punch VS 6 frame jump punch
- don't jump at him
Levitate VS Teleport NJP
- don't Levitate, unless on a hard knockdown
d1/3/4 soul burst VS d1/3/4 hellsparks
- pokes are pretty similar, but Ermac needs to respect Shinnoks superior options, and the fact Shinnok can full combo punish his d1
Fastest move Ermac has is 9 frame high VS fastest Shinnok has is 7 frame low
- pretty important considering Ermac's b124 or f21d2 strings end in neutral, he's basically forced to block after everything he does, backdashing is probably a better option but can get caught with hellsparks/f2
advancing mids: b1 vs f2
- Ermacs will obviously beat this close range, but it doesn't cover as much distance as f22, Ermac is at too much risk baiting this move for whiff punishing, he's too slow and backdashing gets caught.
- Soul Ball / IASB VS Teleport
If Shinnok is in the air and reacts to this, he'll get a full combo punish or at least pressure. At worst Shinnok will block it and you lose all your full-screen pressure for 2-3 seconds. If Shinnok has Telelift, he can punish your Soul Ball on reversal mid-screen.
- d4/d2 anti air VS Teleport
Shinnok can bait out your antiairs for a full punish or pressure
We can establish Ermac is at risk by being offensive
Regarding damage:
Shinnoks damage buff combined with Ermacs special he gets off Mimicry gives him access to 34~% mid-screen combo's for one bar, which he builds safer than Ermac can. Throwing after mimicry is guaranteed, adding an extra 16%. So 2 guesses mid-screen and the game is over.
In summary:
Ermac is at risk everywhere by doing anything.
His mixups are very inferior to Shinnoks, he loses more tools than Shinnok.
The only thing not making this MU a 10-0 is that Shinnok does have to respect some things:
- Ermac can teleport after backdashing/baiting Hellsparks if he's far away enough. Hellsparks leaves Shinnok open for a long time, not many characters can capitalize off this
- Shinnok can't trade with Ermacs Soul Ball if it's charged
- If Ermac has a bar and is close enough, he can punish from the third Hellspark with EX-Telelift (Mystic would do better)
Your only safe zone is right outside Hellsparks full range, when you don't have the life lead you can't sit in this safe zone forever.
There's no mind-mixups Shinnok has to respect, he punishes anything Ermac can come up with, whereas Ermac relies on Shinnoks mistakes to win.
