How are win odds calculated?

[Red King]

It's baffling me - you would think that it's calculated using the number of wins a player has, their win/loss ratio or both yet I'm looking at one guy with 1649 wins and 613 losses who I apparently have a 72% chance of beating, and another guy with 380 wins to 260 losses that I apparently have an 18% chance of beating. It just doesn't appear to make any sense.

Unless, of course, it's calculated by factoring in the stats of each player you've beaten/lost to, but this seems a bit too complex.

Am I missing something obvious or are these win odds percentages broken?

EDIT:

For those of you looking for the answer, the general (unconfirmed) consensus is that it's calculated using a method similar to the Elo rating system which calculates skill based on who you fight e.g. you will gain more skill points defeating good players and lose less losing to good players and vice versa.

EDIT #2:

It's definitely an Elo-based points system; I've just noticed there's a "Score" column on the player match leaderboard so these points must be given/removed based on how many your opponent has.

 

[Bar_Bar13]

Some degree of random with a relation to W/L ratios probably.

 

[FOREVER EL1TE]

I think it's determined by the people you play. I played cowboy, sonicfox, curbo, and my friend said that the win odds dropped from 99% to 33%.
That's just my thinking.

 

[Red King]

If it's random then it's redundant and they should remove it!

 

[Bildslash]

I think it's determined by the people you play. I played cowboy, sonicfox, curbo, and my friend said that the win odds dropped from 99% to 33%.
That's just my thinking.

It definitely takes into a account what type of players you have played and won against. Basically, it helps tell apart stat padders and more legit players.

I like the feature.

 

[SneakyTortoise]

 

[ChrisJG]

It's definitely calculated from the people you play.

 

[IROC]

I like the trueskill ranking mk9 had. That deff showed who the stat padders were

 

[Sulfur]

Probably has to do with the rankings of other players you've beat if i were to guess.

 

[chemicalNova]

Its definitely calculated by the people you play.

I play mostly "99%" chance of winning players online unfortunately. But, those times where I have a 50% chance of winning or less appears to be someone who understands at least the basic mechanics of fighting games.

I even had one guy (who in fact hasn't been online again) that had me at 13% chance of winning and he absolutely bodied me. That said, he was using Erron Black and I had never played an Erron Black player prior to that so the mixups confused me.

I have often wondered whether, because my side says "99%" chance of winning - does the other persons say "1%"?

 

[Juffalo]

Definitely matters who you play. I think at one point I was almost even in player matches and still had a 70%+ win chance against people with much better win ratios.

This strongly implies there is a hidden Elo rating that the game tracks but we cannot see.

 

[Notez4]

my side says "99%" chance of winning - does the other persons say "1%"?

I wonder the same thing bro

 

[The Highlander]

It's baffling me - you would think that it's calculated using the number of wins a player has, their win/loss ratio or both yet I'm looking at one guy with 1649 losses to 613 wins who I apparently have a 72% chance of beating, and another guy with 380 wins to 260 losses that I apparently have an 18% chance of beating. It just doesn't appear to make any sense.

Unless, of course, it's calculated by factoring in the stats of each player you've beaten/lost to, but this seems a bit too complex.

Am I missing something obvious or are these win odds percentages broken?

I believe there is a hidden score, similar to the skill level score in injustice, that is factored into your win loss ratio. Like if I lost ten times a row to joe nobody it would have a pretty big negative impact but if I lost ten times to Perfect legend or sonic fox it wouldn't affect my hidden score too much. I believe it's an attempt to get people to care less about win loss, since like in your example you can have a worse win loss ratio and better odds of winning.

 

[PizzaMasta]

I've already been matched with opponents against whom I had a 100% win rate... poor guy I can't imagine the game telling him : "Sorry dude, you CANNOT win, it's impossible."

 

[Juffalo]

I think it's a really good system because it gives you a much better idea of what to expect when you're looking for player matches. Win ratio really doesn't tell you much, but this win% estimation has given me a much better indication of how challenging my opponent will be.

 

[Lucky_623]

I think it's a really good system because it gives you a much better idea of what to expect when you're looking for player matches. Win ratio really doesn't tell you much, but this win% estimation has given me a much better indication of how challenging my opponent will be.

I agree with this statement and your above statement about a hidden elo system as well.
At one time I believed it was possible to factor in mains- who this person wins with the most- and how they do with them- calculated against how you do against said character... But then I thought it too deep and go with hidden elo/truskill number.

 

[LRK128]

This system IS bullshit! I played someone I had a 0% chance of beating and beat them! #failyousuck . Also it does show up the opposite % for the other player (logic) i've confirmed with friends. So if i have 80 of beating you you have 20 of beating me. imo no system yet invented can track how good a player is accurately. There's a good margin of at least 30% to whatever they put on it either way

 

[PJC_NJ]

It's probably Elo, or a modified Elo system. They typically get better at predicting outcomes over time.

 

[Klesk_1]

It basically seems to track your progress against every player and then tracks theirs in addition, combing them all gives a good indication of your odds. i find it learns all the time too, so after i played a friend a few times my odds started improving after each win.

 

[Demon_0]

9 out of 10 players I face I have a 99 to 100% win chance against according to this system and to some of them I loose, badly. Though my win/loose ratio is about 500/50. Basically, don't rely on it too much is what I'm saying.

 

[iMileena]

Actually it is broken, they can never tell from the scrubs & the good players which is weird

 

[Deadly Torcher]

I only go for fights that's I have a 50\50 chance of winning or below, they are usually very tough matches.

Haven't fought any1 that I've had 0% chance of beating yet but I went 1 win each against some1 I only had a 1% chance of beating & I was happy with that.

That only happens once in a blue moon tho as trying to get some fights in those online rooms are shockingly bad.

 

[Barrogh]

Actually it is broken, they can never tell from the scrubs & the good players which is weird

Statistics it uses probably won't be able to work correctly if person in question cherrypicks his matches, doesn't play all kinds of people online to form reliable average etc.

 

[XAlcarazX]

the % seems pretty accurate for me. under 60% is usually a somewhat solid player, I really like this feature with a little tweaks it can be really useful