Awesome post, Doom Bark. I pretty much agree with you completely. I don't think every single knockdown Bane can land will afford an opportunity to land a backdash-stuffing meaty though and that's where really knowing your options - limited as they may be - come into play.
I've been saying his oki is "best ever" status and the guessing game is heavily in his favor all along, but sometimes it only takes one or two right guesses to seal the victory for his opponent too. It's simply no more the case that you will lose your lifebar guaranteed off one knockdown if you have shit wakeups as it is that you'll be able to get up every time if you know what options Bane has. It's somewhere in between the two and I have never denied that its leaning way more toward the "stay the fuck down" side of things.
It's just that this "I can't do anything waaaah" mentality isn't exactly true. Batgirl has a million ways to get you into a vortex and a million and one ways to mix you up out of it, but people acknowledge that it's a guess and they have a chance. Same with Sinestro and so forth. Bane's oki is right up there with those in that chances are Bane will guess right way more often, but you CAN still get out if you make the read instead, and certain characters can play their game again if they do.
It only doesn't matter when you're Catwoman since getting out gets you nowhere special anyway lol.
