Depending on what you do, you cant even poke out. In this video I have sub zero do reversal slide, which has an 8 frame startup (just as fast as his d1).
First thing I do is just block, and obviously I get punished.
Then I do a frame trap: f112, dash cancel, f112, and sub zero gets hit, which means anyone mashing a move with an 8 frame startup will get hit (ill have to test the exact frame data later, but at least we know that it blows up fairly fast moves, and we can always change what we do after the dash cancel to get the tightest frame trap).
And last, I show that you can even use this to jump cancel your moves by simply pressing up forward as you run. If your opponent whiffs something, you can punish with xray, which is pretty darn fast so its really easy to whiff punish something. The jump cancel can probably also lead to some pretty interesting combos.
Edit: just tested the frame trap on scorpions d1 (5 frame startup, damn thats fast), and he still gets hit. So yeah, no ones going to mash out of this.