Fighting games in essence are basically overly complicated rock-paper-scissors. Tokido doesn't get thrown 3-4 times in a row by Infiltration because he's a bum that can't react.
Strike/throw is a 50/50, strike/delayed strike is a 50/50. The neutral game has tons of guess work, in any game.
The difference between players will always be knowledge, experience, reactions, etc. There's enough depth in fighting games, that the amount of guessing will not always matter. The better player will typically win. Foxy for example will often throw people after he blocks one of their pokes. Most players are not deep enough into the counterpoke meta to consider that as often as he does. When there are so many options to make reads/guesses with, players can pull ahead, despite a lot of it being just guessing.
I don't understand the notion that strike/throw is so much better than overhead/low. Maybe it's because throws are stronger on SFV, but I just don't see it.