I found this setup day one, but I do it a bit different. The first time I do the setups, after the restand I'll purposefully back throw. That is 45% 1 bar damage and them back in the corner. If they didn't try to tech the throw I will go for the set up again and this time do foward throw seeing as they showed me no knowledge of the KB prior. This entire sequence if it works is an easy flawless victory. Most time You'll have the first round won first the first setup seeing as you do damage getting them to the corner, then the 45% setups then and easy shimmy, stagger, or spaced move you want to use. The second round they will start out in the corner and is when you get the setup into foward throw KB.
Thee is no such thing as "Just do this" in this game. People used to say "Just block low against Johnny" all the time. I would constantly be explaining to them that this isn't 50/50 OH/Low MKX and there is such thing as spacing/baiting/staggers ... etc. Now look, one of the best characters in the game. Just block low ... yeah, sure. Do that so I can stagger and bait you all game. That is what make this game so fun for me. The mind game you actually have to play.