Here are my opinions on matchups. Feel free to disagree, make your points and discuss. I am really only going to provide my opinion on characters I feel I have enough matchup experience with.
5-5 vs Baraka - I don't have enough matchup experience to really say, but my gut tells me this could be changed. (Left chart as is)
4-6 vs Cyber Sub-Zero - I don't have enough experience with this matchup to form an opinion. Sonya bullies low very well which means CSZ probably will not be getting many Ice-Parries off. I think this one probably comes down to how well Sonya can contain the CSZ dive-kicks. (left chart as is)
4-6 vs Cyrax - Cyrax controls a lot of space with bombs and net. You really have to maneuver around this well and pick your spots. Once Sonya gets in you really have to maintain constant pressure and try to prevent Cyrax from dropping a close bomb and defending. On Cyrax's Wake-Up, Sonya has to create a little bit of space if she wants to punish wake-up attempts, or simply stay in his face and block which allows him to escape wake-up pressure with meter. Because of the amount of damage Cyrax currently gets from combo's I feel that this is currently in Cyrax's favor. Sonya's Ex-Cartwheel can pass through both a bomb and a net on startup which can be useful.
5-5 vs Ermac - This matchup really comes down to dash blocking appropriately and keeping Ermac honest on wake-up.
xxx vs Freddy Krueger
5-5 vs Jade - I don't have enough experience in this matchup to say, perhaps Wonderchef could chime in since he plays Krayzie Bone's Jade? (left chart as is)
6-4 vs Jax - I don't have enough experience in this matchup to really say. Sonya can lower her hitbox to nullify the dash punch. Don't get cornered. (left chart as is)
5-5 vs Johnny Cage - This matchup comes down to whoever can get the other person in frame traps first. Sonya has d4; Cage has f3,2. If Cages f3,2 is timed appropriately it can stuff the d4 forcing Sonya to defend appropriately and poke her way out of pressure. Sonya can do the same with ms cancels.
4-6 vs Kabal - Kabal's instant-air gas ball and sawblade zoning really puts this match in Kabal's favor. You have to work your way in which can be very difficult. Sonya has ms xx 2 which can somewhat force her way in under the ia gas-balls. You have to be cautious on Kabal's wake-up, but so does every other character.
4-6 vs Kano - Keepaway Kano that forces you to dash block all day and uses the b112 string when close can be difficult to deal with, especially if they are using the command grab for frame-advantage to escape and re-setup their zone game.
xxx vs Kenshi -
5-5 vs Kitana - This matchup comes down to Kitana d1 vs. Sonya d4. Sonya needs to dash and crouch under the fans, get good reads on Kitana's f3 xx cutter, f3,2 and d1 xx Cutter. When Sonya has scored a knockdown, Kitana's wake-up options are not very threatening allowing you to maintain pressure. This is a really good matchup that comes down to good spacing.
5-5 vs Kung Lao - I actually feel that Sonya deals with Kung Lao well. Sonya will primarily be crouch blocking which will cause Kung Lao's go-to strings to whiff because they hit high. Against the low hat block-strings, Sonya can d1 to break-up pressure easily after a blocked low hat (I have tested punishing the d1 with spin, and I do not think it is possible since her d1 is 6 frames). The primary threat to Sonya in this matchup if you are crouch blocking would be overheads, and all of Kung Lao's overheads are punishable and can be fuzzy-guarded. Sonya has a 7-frame uppercut with a good hitbox, so Kung Lao should never get a regular teleport off.
5-5 vs Liu Kang -
4.5-5.5 vs Mileena - I agree that this seems to be one of Sonya's more difficult matchups. In theory she should be able to dive-kick on the d4, but I don't seem to make that happen. Sonya also has the benefit of being able to jump kick xx air-throw to punish the lowered hitbox which is more than most characters get. Sonya does not get full punish against blocked dive-kicks or rolls, but can get around 20-25% with a modified combo.
5-5 vs Nightwolf - I don't have much reason to believe that this matchup is in Nightwolf's favor. Sonya's offense is generated from low attacks which makes Nightwolf's Shoulder Charge less useful as a tool. Sonya has a 6-frame d1 which should allow her to escape most of Nightwolf's frame-traps by breaking up pressure.
4-6 vs Noob Saibot - I don't think this match-up is a 3-7, but does feel like it is Noob Saibot's favor. Once Sonya is within d4 range, she should be able to nullify the up-kicks better than most characters can. You have to fight your way around shadow-tackles with push block first though.
6-4 vs Quan Chi -
5.5-4.5 vs Raiden - Sonya is one of the few characters that can actually punish Raiden's teleport with full combo (jump back dive kick >> combo) if you're looking for it. Sonya can poke her way out of Raiden's block strings with d1 easily enough. This matchup takes practice, but eventually becomes very winnable when you are using your tools correctly. Slight advantage for Sonya.
xxx vs Rain
4-6 vs Reptile - Slow orb covers reptiles command dash allowing Reptile to maintain pressure. This matchup comes down to good spacing, Sonya needs to maintain a position where she is close enough to cause the command dash to collide with Sonya on block (and punish) and close enough to make Reptile be fearful of using regular orbs. Reptiles enhanced orbs have faster startup which can make jumping in on Reptile very risky because he gets a full combo. Try to get Reptile to spend all of his meter then pursue with jump-ins since he does not have great anti-air options or fast normals.
5-5 vs Scorpion -
5-5 vs Sektor - Sektor has to spend meter in situations he would otherwise have to take risks. When Sektor can cancel attack strings into a front or back up missile I think this chart could change, but I currently feel this matchup is even.
4-6 vs Shang Tsung - Up-Skulls and Air Skulls dictate Sonya's movement. Shang Tsung can make it very difficult for Sonya to move forward, and if he gets Sonya to block a close skull this sets him up for a free safe-jump into a mix-up that can be ended in another blocked up-skull that leaves Shang Tsung at slight advantage. If Shang Tsung ends his block strings into an air-skull you can technically attempt to punish him, but risk getting hit by the air-skull which sets Shang Tsung up for more pressure. Sonya is forced to take a lot of risks in this matchup to win.
6-4 vs Sheeva - This matchup is not a 7-3. Sheeva has some very nasty block traps with her command grabs that leave her at +1. Her normals are slow, but she can force you to guess. It isn't worth it to pressure Sheeva on wake-up because the ex-command grab will beat anything Sonya can do if you are pressing buttons, and on block leaves Sheeva is at +1. It is risky to attempt to beat Sheeva's air-stomp because it is guide-able. At best Sonya gets a jump back kick then a grounded combo for maybe 20-25%, or jump back kick air-throw for 15% (this assumes Sheeva is using the stomp that lands above you).
4-6 vs Sindel - Sindel's zoning can be very tough to deal with. Once you find your way in with Sonya you have to maintain pressure and be aware of the overhead flip kick.
xxx vs Skarlet -
5-5 vs Smoke -
6-4 vs Stryker - This is not a 4-6 in Stryker's favor. Sonya can dash and crouch under Strykers gun zoning. Once Sonya is in on Stryker she can pressure him constantly. Stryker has to spend meter on wake-up to create a neutral situation, and does not really have any fast enough mid-hitting strings to punish Sonya for much of anything.
4-6 vs Sub-Zero - Ice-clone dictates the pace of this match and can be very difficult to work around. Sonya's rings have fast recovery so she should be able to get a few of these off within enough time to safely block an ice-ball. If the Sub-Zero is ending all of their block strings into ice-clone it can be very difficult to generate an offense. Ex Cartwheel will break an ice-clone and go through an ice-ball on start-up, but if Sub-Zero has good spacing this can be irrelevant.
. I normally just hold block and tap back continuously then press Forward+2 for rings/fireball when Subzero releases block or tries to advance.
