There is only one way you can get blown up and it has nothing to do with guessing. Yes deciding what your going to do when Kung lao teleports is a guess, but its a guess that works in Subzeros favor. First you have to remember that kung lao WANTS that delayed 3, because thats the one he gets a full combo from. All he gets from instant 3 is putting his boot in your face. So always start off by swinging for the fences with 2,2. His greediness for that full combo will instead get him full combo punished.
At some point he will tire of this and he will go to instant 3. Now even if you guess wrong here the worst your gonna eat is a boot to the face. You can block the follow up pressure afterwards. Without his pre patch low hat Kung Laos pressure isnt what it used to be. You may eat a throw here,but so what. What you really need to look out for is his crossovers. Its risky trying to NJP them because if you guess wrong and he doesnt jump, he spins and then its big trouble in little china, nevertheless sometimes you still have to take that chance. Lao has a natural mixup in his crossovers. If you stay crouch blocking to avoid the JK>teleport jail trap he can just do a JIP instead and he gets a full combo. If you high block to avoid getting JIPunched then he can do the JK>teleport jail. Its a big pain in the ass and honestly if I have a bar of meter I will usually just say fuck it and EX slide out of it all together. Whether he does JIK or JIP hes getting nailed. But I digress.
Getting back to punishing teleport basically you have one option that covers everyone of his teleport options except instant 3, which is 2,2. The only one 2,2 wont beat is instant 3. But thats ok because the worst you eat here is a boot to the face. Once he starts using instant 3 you can duck instant 3 and stand up and 2,1,2,ice blast him. So now you have a way to punish all his teleport options while not taking to much risk yourself.
The most important part of this is being able to visually recognize instant 3. This is the one place you can act wrong and get blown up if your not careful. Heres the scenario:
Kung Lao teleports, your read is that he will instant 3 so you duck and get ready to stand up and punish with 2,1,2. What you HAVE to watch for is to make sure you see that instant 3 come out. If you dont you MUST stay blocking. At this point delayed 3 will beat you if you try to stand up and punish and then you get full comboed. This is the hardest part of the mixup because you only have a split second to visually confirm whether instant 3 has come out or not. It will take some practice.
