I'm just going to go ahead and write up why Cage is NOT a 5-5, and touch a little on why I think it's 7-3.
So let's look at midscreen game first. Actually, let's entirely forget the corner in this writeup. This is a match where naked clone is completely valid and thus can be won midscreen and is actually safer to play than in the corner (not that you can't). So with that... Midscreen Cage can either be a moron and throw forceballs to punish Clones on a read (which you can Slide on reaction), or burn a bar on EX Shadow Kick when he sees you Ice Ball while behind a clone. Cage gets a free Force Ball followup if he hits with a kick. Big whoop. Cage doesn't want to kick you anyway because then he still has to get back in and he just wasted a bar.
So to get around clones, good Cage's generally will do one thing (when they're not stupidly trying to jump over them). They time when clone is going to dissapear. If you realize that, you can prepare for it, easily. Back off your clones before they time out, or stand by it as bait and be ready when they come in with your 22.
Now let's look at what people like to argue makes Cage annoying for Sub. His low hitbox. 2 will not hit mid on Cage the majority of the time, but this is not 100%, no matter if he's neutral ducking or crouch blocking. It will hit entirely randomly, based on where he is in his crouching animation. He bobs up and down while crouching and you can catch him on the up.
But that's just an aside. Cage's WILL still try to poke as you 2, and rightfully so. So the obvious answer is D4. We all know that if you hit a standing opponent with D4, 2 is guaranteed. They cannot duck in time to poke you out. But what do you do if Cage is just crouch blocking D4 all day?
Well, there's a couple things. First, something all Subs should know by now. You can't pointblank 224 clone a Cage that is crouch blocking. People say dont 224 a crouching Cage. The clone will not not come out. ... Unless.... and this is just a different strategy from the obvious D4~clone or D4 naked clone.... Blocked D4, no dash, 224~Clone/22~Clone. The pushback on a blocked D4 will allow you a 224~Clone or 22~Clone on a crouch blocking Cage if you do not dash in and will also whiff punish him if he tried to poke you, as well as anti-airing him if he tried to jump after blocking your D4. You win in all scenarios. It is in fact better to use 224 instead of 21. 21 will push you into his poke. You can also try 22~Freeze if you're feeling ballsy. Honestly, I don't believe Cage can do anything against this setup other than spend a bar, EX nut punch being the only worthwhile option, and I'm not even sure that would work. It sure as hell wouldnt if I just naked cloned after the D4. Spaced 224 is one of the main assets in this match.
So there's another thing handy in this matchup against a Cage that loves crouching that no Sub ever wants to talk about. Subs D3. Sub has a solid D3 god dammit. It's only real drawback is it's stubbyness, but that can also be an advantage. It's 7 frames. Only -8 on block, +2 on hit to stand and +9 to crouch... and guess what? If you hit a D3 on a crouching Cage, 2 is guaranteed to hit if he doesn't block. Since you're +9 (i.e. the same startup frames of 2), he cannot poke you even IF the 2 whiffed, but the D3 on crouch hit raises his hitbox enough to allow 2 to hit.
So now let's look at Cages pressure. People get too damn scared of Cage pressure. Sub has great tools to get out. So something I like to do when possible if I'm trying to poke out is use D3, and not D4. Cage's that are on auto-pilot are more likely than not going to to suffer a followup after the D3, because it's fast, good advantage, good recovery and stubby (remember that stubbyness advantage I said earlier?). If you D4, you just screamed at Cage "HEY GUY, IT'S TIME TO BLOCK". The much higher chance for getting damage is a greater reward for poking out of Cage pressure if that's the route you want to take, versus using a poke with only a 1 frame difference that guarantees Cage blocks.
But there's some other things you can do. Next on the list is D1~Clone. This should be obvious. Cage runs into it or you're safe.
But the biggest advantage you have versus Cage pressure? EX Slide. You have armor.... But it's full combo punishable you say? Well okay, but the option forces Cage to make a read. If Cage does 11F1 or EX Forceballs, he's in a 50/50 situation. He has to bait it and block or he's done with his pressure. He cannot bait it with a crossup because you still get out and are full screen.
Let's look at another way to use EX Slide in Cage pressure. Check this out.... take a hit. This works the majority of the time. If you are HIT with F3, F33, F33B3 or straight 21, you can still EX Slide, 3 of which are a guaranteed attempt. Cage is at +3, +4 and +5 on his F3 strings and 0 on naked 21. He can by the numbers stuff your armor of F33B3 with an onpoint D1, but most Cages still F3 attempt.
Another thing Cage might do is F4. If you block the F4, I find that a straight 22 catches Cage most of the time. It's 0 on block with pushback, so he'll either A) Crossup, 22 pulls him out of that B) Go for a lowpoke, in which case just look as you're 22ing to confirm this and block or C) He won't hit confirm it or try to catch you jumping out with a followup standing 1. Standing 1 is 1 frame faster than your standing 2, but he loses frames because he has to dash forward.
So yeah, not a terribly difficult matchup.
