Things we can somewhat guess-
1. 30ish characters(lets assumed between 24-30) before dlc(screen currently only holds 24).
2. More than half the cast is new characters(i seem to recall that being said).
3. This means at least a 13-11 or up to a 16-14 split if they aren't full of it and they only have 1 more new character vs old.
New characters so far-
Cassie
Kotal
Dvorah
Ferra/tor
So 4(unless they count ferra/tor as 2, which would BE BULLSHIT BOON). Leaving at minimum 10 slots for them(i'm still seriously sad we've had 0 new characters in the trailers. God they suck at hype).
Old characters so far:
Ermac
Kano
Kitana
Goro
Kung Lao
Raiden
Reptile
Quan
Scorp
Sub-Zero
So 10(maybe 9 if you don't count goro, which might make sense). Leaving, at most 5.
My personal picks would probably be-
1. Shinnok. He might not make it as he's a "boss"/story only guy, but I still see no way they could do the story without him given the end of MK9, so there's a VERY good chance i'd say he's playable.
2. Mileena- Alive at the end of 9, kitana is back, and we had the gamestop thing.
3. Shang-Tsung- again, gamestop thing, and shang's just a very good character for the series.
4. Cyrax- Another possible leak, but I could see him being and NPC character that's just involved in some other odd way in a bonus or training mode. Still possible though.
5. Sonya/Johnny- We've heard that there's maybe the whole "parent killing daughter" thing, so i'd guess that one of them will return. Kano fighting cassie could be enough, but it would make sense if one of them was there. That said avoiding the mother daughter controversy might be something they'd do(I sure would given how violent the new fatalities are). If i had to pick one i'd say johnny, since he has a more unique style(cassie seems more sonya).
Either way if we're looking at the low end, and they didn't blow their numbers in some way, we've got 1 or 2 returning characters left.
This would leave out, from MK9 non DLC cast, the following:
The other half of sonya/johnny- I'm sooooo putting money on Kano finally killed one
Baraka- meh. He's a fan favorite in a lot of ways, but it's hard to justify given how crap he was and how little story value he brings.
Sindel- Dead I believe. Giving the girls something else to fight/bitch about might be nice. Khan is gone too so unless they give us "good sidel" I think we've seen the last of her for awhile.
Liu Kang- This would be difficult to swallow, but i'm wondering if they'll count some demon/god version of him as a new character, or maybe a son/daughter.
Jade- Sorta played out, and the least likely to come back of the group
Noob- Seems that the current sub is the older brother. Timeline change and what not.
Jax- Already crowded with the cast as is. Dead by kano maybe. Dead already I think?
Sheeva- Goro is in, but as DLC, so i don't see it.
Smoke- There was that "it's smoke in the movelist" thing, but i can see that being placeholders. I do want him, or someone like him, back.
Kabal- Fuck that guy.
Nightwolf- Died in the last game. Maybe a descendant.
Sektor- Evil robot of the robot duo. easy to see him not coming back.
Stryker- Died in the last game. Isn't important.
Cyber Sub- Can't honestly remember what happened to him. Don't think he's important enough(even though he was one of the bigger timeline changes).
