My least confident lists so far, as i just haven't had as much time to play/watch since the patch:
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Order doesn't matter. I do think that shang and geras are a little downplayed right now and i've seen some impressive nitara stuff, but i'm not sure how "real" it is. The yellow and Green tiers could probably just be one long one but I think the yellow's have a higher chance of moving up. Still even typing that I think the green's could move up, just less likely.
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Lao is easy enough. If you don't have a reason to use someone else, use lao. It's basically never ever bad based on low hat on its own giving you both a zoning gameplan, an offense tool, and a way to cover your risky/mixup stuff.
Many use case characters have a tool or tools that mean they're just very powerful and probably the go to if you don't want to lao or think one of those tools does something lao can't.
Specific use is for anyone who just does something that no one else can do in a specific situation. kenshi getting sento out off a freeze, Sub for anti zoning, darrius reiko combos, scorps spear/hellfire, etc.
Cyrax, I think, will in the future revolve around his bomb setups, but that'll have to wait and see. Shunjinko is very much a counter pick as he currently exists.
Kano/Sonya aren't bad, but whatever reason you're picking them for,
someone else probably does it better.
Motaro feels like Kung Lao made his universe with the same spite Liu showed to Quan chi. If you want a teleport, well you're picking lao, end of discussion.
His projectile reflect is already up against sub's anti projectile option, but also doesn't work on the most common projectile in the game (low hat), and feels like it might be stronger if there was a stronger zoning game in place, but there isn't (or again the ones that are used aren't affected as badly by motaro).
His fireball/turret are "ok" but not good enough to justify picking him. His fatal blow gimmick is neat, but not enough in the current state to justify. He just feels like he doesn't do enough when right now the main reason you'd pick him is the teleport, and lao is just vastly bette then.