I don't actually think Adam wins, I've always thought it's been a 5-5. I just wanted to throw in my 2c cause no one seems to mention this.
After hands Adam can walk back/backdash (not played the MU recently, can't remember which one it is) and very easily whiff punish a follow up F23.
Supes has to make a hard read to punish a backdash and commit to a fwd dash himself as none of his buttons catch it. This is obviously very easily whiff punished.
B2 to whiff punish pokes. Safe and can be made plus with trait to continue pressure.
IIRC, the F12 string will catch Supes' backdash after hands. Can't remember if it's actually a punish or whether it forces him to block afterwards, either way it's still significant enough that it's worth mentioning.
And finally there's MbB3 or F3, which will beat out F23 if Supes doesn't have trait on. I think this meta is actually really strong and shouldn't just be glossed over when talking about the MU. It's really similar to the breath meta game
So I've been double checking all of this just to be sure, and I think you are missing some things. As a reminder, all this stuff is after a blocked lightning hands:
Adam cannot walk or backdash to whiff punish f23. The only thing he can do if he doesn't want to hold a followup f23 is d1, but that's a hard read and can be punished. Superman can also do a flying punch to punish a backlash clean, but obviously thats a very hard read.
Adam cannot B2 after lightning hands, as there is no reason for Superman to poke here. Supes' d1 is out of range, and his f23 already beats out a f1 from adam, so poking isn't covering anything.
Already went over how Supes can punish a followup f12 if Supes backdashes.
MbB3 or F3 can beat out a f23 from Supes. However, I think that you cannot neglect the fact that in these situations Supes
does have his trait activated a non-negligible amount of the time, completely removing the option. If Superman just holds back after lightning hands, both f3 and b3 whiff, leading to a punish.
You're welcome to double check me, a lot of this stuff is hard to check (at least for me) for sure outside of having two people in practice mode. Assuming I'm not royally fucking something up, I still think the f23 breath meta is way better than the lightning hands meta.