Official Rules For P1 and Stage Advantage

after all this time of people winning as player 2 now they want to start complanning about been player 2 it is kind of funny

MK9 is just Player 1 as the old MK's it was random. if it was random in MK9, this wouldnt be an issue, but of course its not like that. lol

Honestly, the P1 advantage will likely account for very few, if any, tournament losses.

I'm not saying that it should be there, it's HORRIBLE that it's there, but lets look at the math.

- Because of variable stage length, we cannot determine actual % of hurtbox to stage ratio. However, we can just start with if characters are either within or outside of striking distance. - 50% = 1/2

- Next, the P1 advantage is based on another major factor:
A. Moves must activate on the exact same FRAME. - Then remember you have 60 chances PER SECOND for it to happen = 60/1(60 fps) x 90/1(90 sec.) = 5400 frames. Players must execute them on the same frame 1/5400.

Lets now do the actual math.

1/2 x 1/5400 = 1/10800 = 0.000092592%

SO DO WE REALLY NEED TO WORRY ABOUT THIS?

Keep in mind, these are only the very basic variables, not including specials, hurtbox %, stage length, etc. This will make it even smaller of a percentage.

Phil,

With all due respect, that is horribly misleading math. Let me break this down on a much more reasonable scale.

The most obvious time that something like this is going to happen is during poke-out situations. Let me use the example of Smoke vs. Kenshi, both have a six frame D1. Kenshi has just blocked a 3d12 from Smoke, which is zero frames of advantage on block. From a spacing standpoint, assume both players' D1 are in range of striking. Assume that both players have an average margin of error being 4 frames (i'm feeling generous) in either direction of when 3d12's recovery ends and both players can press d1 and have an action occur.

With these given conditions, we can deduce the following:

Chance of D1 being in range: 100%
Reasonable room for error on either player's side, in regards to timing D1: +4f/-4f + just-frame frame = range of 9 frames.
Chance of Smoke just-framing his D1: 1/9
Chance of Kenshi just-framing his D1: 1/9

1(1/9)(1/9) = 1.23% chance both players just frame their D1. This means that Smoke will be winning the (possibly non-ideal) trade scenario .617% more times than he should because there is no 50/50 trading; P1 wins on all just frame trades.

Now, let's tighten that range up a bit; 4 frames early AND 4 frames late is a bit slow for the absolute top players (where this really matters!)

Given information:

Chance of D1 being in range: 100%
Reasonable room for error: +2f/-2f + just-frame frame= range of 5 frames.
Chance of Smoke just-framing his D1: 1/5
Chance of Kenshi just-framing his D1: 1/5

1(1/5)(1/5) = 4% chance both players just frame their D1. This means that Smoke will be winning the (possibly non-ideal) trade scenario 2% more times than he should be because there is no 50/50 trading; P1 wins on all just frame trades.

The numbers of course get scarier the closer and closer you get to both players just-framing.

1 frame room for error + just frame frame = range of 3 frames.

1(1/3)(1/3) = 11.1% chance of both players just frame their D1. This means that Smoke will be winning the overall (possibly non-ideal) trade scenario 5.56% more often than he should because there is no 50/50 trading; P1 wins on all just frame trades.

Not trying to take a side on whether or not this is a huge issue or not; however I am simply trying to put out a more accurate representation of what actually could happen. If my logic is flawed, please call me on it

This only accounts for 2 characters in a situational encounter. 31 viable characters in the game, and you will NEVER see an entire match consisting of poke/counter poke. Your math is good but only for that situation, so it's just as misleading, if not more. My math is based on ONE SINGLE BUTTON PRESS by both players throughout the course of a 90 second match. What that means is that there is a variable percentage during the course of a match, but is still very negligible.

Regardless, a coin flip to ease overly worried players is the best way to handle it.

fixed

Well, yeah, my post only applies to poke wars, but you don't get much more just frame than that. Any other situations where stuff like this happens is purely coincidental and your math is a bit more reasonable.

However you can't deny how often poke-out situations occur. Especially with everyone's favorite character, Johnny Cage. f3 leaves both parties at zero and within poke distance of one another, mindgames aside.

Here's a short list of moves that leave both players at zero on block and within poke distance; this is by no means a complete listing. Just what I've got off the top of my head:

Smoke: 3d12, 214, b2, d4 (assuming performed at close range)
JC: 1, 11, 13, 2, 21, f3, f32
Cyrax: 123, 22
Kano: 112, 212, f12, b112 (thanks z911 for these two guys)
KL: 1, 11, 2, 21

There's obviously a BUNCH more, but neutral situations where the poke game becomes huge happen very frequently, and player 1 has a big advantage in this department. If he knows that P2 cannot poke out in time or has slow pokes, who's to say that he can't use a d3 on his neutral crouching opponent and get big advantage off of it like some characters do? Who's to say P1 is going to read p2 not trying to poke at all and wating to block the inevitable d1 so he can punish P1 who is at ~13 frames disadvantage? It's more than just the math; it opens up a mindgame that should not exist to begin with. Every other fighting game either forces a trade where both players take damage on a just frame, or it could be how MK9 is SUPPOSED to be where it is actually random who wins. This mindgame is in player one's favor, like it or not.

To get a bit more on-topic, soonk's point is uncontestable. You simply can't do a coin flip to determine player 1/stage choice! All player 1 has to say is "lol colorblind" and they get the default colorblind stage. A different approach must be offered to this issue IMO.

Oh god, you should NOT have said that. I'm really way too lazy to do more 3rd grade math and present data on this topic too lmao